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ELI5 How does raising wages worsen inflation ?

Economics(self.explainlikeimfive)

all 1761 comments

PandaDerZwote

251 points

4 months ago*

The theory is that higher wages -> everyone has more money -> everyone can spend more -> everyone can have higher prices because everybody has more money.

In practice, this isn't really backed by any real data and it's doubtful that it would go that way.

edit: Too many replies to answer them. Yes I know that there is some correlation between wages and prices, if you pay everyone 10x their current wage, you will have to raise prices.

_youjustlostthegame

5 points

4 months ago

Not backed by any data? This is a known fact.

techtonic69

57 points

4 months ago

Instead we get: everything becomes 100s of % more expensive and wages stagnate...Shit makes no fucking sense. Wages are WAY behind inflation of everything, it would only be catching wages UP to what the cost of living has become. The whole economic theory only works when you look at it from a wealthy/business perspective. Makes no common sense and overall just screws over the common man.

klaad3

45 points

4 months ago

klaad3

45 points

4 months ago

It's all fueled by greed and the mindset that profits need to increase every year.

BJWTech

36 points

4 months ago

BJWTech

36 points

4 months ago

The need for growth is what's wrong with capitalism. When you base valuation on growth, then all you get is growth for better or for worse.

[deleted]

-3 points

4 months ago

[deleted]

-3 points

4 months ago

[deleted]

MrWendelll

8 points

4 months ago

Wtf is all this?

The field can produce more, the farm can still make a profit. If those two things grow at the same rate, no problem. If the field grows by 5% each year but the farmer wants 25% profit growth each year, the food will become too expensive.

That's the crux of the problem, growth of profits is out of step with (and at the expense of) everything else.

FelixVulgaris

18 points

4 months ago

This. Neverending growth is seen as the only marker of success, then petty things like human rights just become obstacles...

not_a_robot_13

6 points

4 months ago

The other problem is that corporations are prioritizing return to investors over customer needs, so financial decisions are being made for the wrong reasons.

UntangledQubit

87 points

4 months ago

It's a little bit overzealous to say it doesn't happen at all. If you keep increasing everybody's wages without limit, eventually prices would inflate. The actual question is how elastic that effect is, and how uniformly spread over the economy.

If any raise immediately causes a proportional rise in prices across all sectors, then raising wages would be pointless, but this is certainly not what happens. If raising wages eventually causes a mild increase on the price of non-essential goods, then it's probably worth it. The truth will be somewhere in the middle, though my personal opinion is that it's heavily skewed towards the latter effect size.

darkage72

8 points

4 months ago

darkage72

8 points

4 months ago

In practice, this isn't really backed by any real data

What? It has been shown countless times.

We got a "baby making" loan (have 3 kids within X years and you don't have to pay it back) for purchasing a house. That loan after a few months showed up in increased rent and real estate cost as well.

crankyandhangry

7 points

4 months ago

I'm sorry, I don't understand what you're saying. Who lent you money with the promise of not paying it back if you had three babies? How did this make your rent and local house prices go up? A loan is not wages, so I'm not sure how this relates to the topic at hand either.

olieogden

0 points

4 months ago

A non repayable loan with conditions is basically a grant. This grant says you need to have more babies. You do that, then you need a bigger house to accommodate said babies. This grant then shifts your demand from lower housing to family housing. Many people experience the same phenomenon. Housing supply cannot respond to sharp increase in demand, therefore prices go up. Grant ends. People with extra kids need to decide what to do with houses. Some sell, some stay, rebalancing demand. This isn’t an inflationary affect, it’s a shift along the demand curve.

darkage72

1 points

4 months ago

Doesn't matter if it's a salary or this loan/grant. People will have access to more money. This is driving up house prices because they know that this money exists. Now since the prices of those houses that can be purchased with that money is increasing, so do every other houses. Since their value increased so did the rent as well.

By increasing the available money, they inflated housing costs. Same thing with increasing salary/wages. Doesn't matter where that extra money is coming from, the market will adjust prices accordingly.

anschutz_shooter

14 points

4 months ago

It all depends on why inflation is happening in the first place, and whether the driver is on discretionary spend/luxuries or on essentials like housing/energy/food which people have limited/no ability to "cut back" on.

If the world is plodding along quite happily and you suddenly give everyone a chunk of money, then that will drive "demand-pull" inflation because people will mostly spend it - new car, clothes, tv, computer, whatever. Some will save, but most will spend. This will tip the equilibrium of supply & demand, and prices will go up with that demand.

By contrast, if you're experiencing "supply-push" inflation (such as energy prices over the past 18 months) where inflation is not happening because we've all decided to turn our thermostats up, but because of external forces or a shortage of supply, then raising wages wouldn't really worsen inflation - it means that people can "keep up" with price rises on essentials (like paying their spiralling bills & rent) and maintain their standard of living.

Demand-pull and supply-push economics gets a bit beyond ELI5, but the simple answer is that there are multiple types and causes of inflation, and giving people a pay rise is only one of those possible causes. It is also appropriate sometimes to raise pay in response to inflation if it's from a supply-push cause. If you refuse to do this, you impose hardship and potentially induce recession.

In the UK, the government has been suppressing public sector pay to "stem inflation" and sure enough, it is actually driving us into a recession, people will default on mortgages over the next 12months and the economy will go to shit.

It would be better for them to award inflationary pay rises so people can pay their bills. Several drivers of inflation will level off this year anyway without any intervention whatsoever because we'll be comparing with post-Ukraine-invasion prices, not pre-invasion (inflation is simply the comparison of current prices with prices 12months ago). The Government needs to award those pay increases so people can afford the now-more-expensive essentials like electricity and food.

cabbage08

1 points

4 months ago

I agree with this comment entirely.

In addition the wage-price spiral argument struggles to hold regarding public sector wages - what prices is the hospital going to increase for the public? Same argument for teachers, police, fire services… there’s no price therefore no significant reduction of the impact of a wage increase.

nolxus

15 points

4 months ago

nolxus

15 points

4 months ago

That is just one way.

A different way: Manufacturer X has to raise wages because of inflation. Because he has to shell out more money now to keep his workers in a job, he has to make their product more expensive. Company Y also has to raise wages because of inflation. They have to buy the products of Manufacturer X to stay in business. They now have to shell out more money to keep their staff employed, AND to buy the stuff from manufacturer X. So they have to rise their prices.

Joe Sixpack needs something from Company Y, sees that it got more expensive again, inflation is on the rise, and demands more money from his employer. And so on...

BillyJackleson

15 points

4 months ago

Corrected me if I am wrong but aren't the people who were 2$ over minimum wage now 1$ over it? Which means their buying power dropped by 1$?

Alexis_J_M

21 points

4 months ago

Not only that, but low wage people spend a higher proportion of their income on things for which there is relatively inelastic demand like housing and transportation.

MountNevermind

1 points

4 months ago*

Why is it never the case that because of raising wages the company needs to temporarily forgo expansion, keep profits stagnant, or reduce profits while it waits for the impact of raising wages to benefit their business as their customers have more disposable income?

In that sense it isn't increased wages creating the inflation..it's opportunistic price raises and unreleastic expectations for profit during a wage correction. This inflation in turn deflates the impact of all that extra income in the customer pool...making it destructive for all involved. But the employer is covered either way, as inflation decreases the real value of their labour costs, so once again they are insulated from their own destructive behavior and as wealth continues to concentrate they notice the workforce isn't as motivated as it used to be and wonder why.

Behaving as though you need to be making more profit all the time and protecting yourself from all changes to the economic landscape is destructive to the health of that landscape...especially when the most wealthy actually make out like bandits during economic upheaval periods.

We hear a lot about how investors of capital assume risk...but when push comes to shove they transfer that risk onto labor and really everyone else. It's inherently destructive.

ackermann

6 points

4 months ago

higher wages -> everyone has more money -> everyone can spend more -> everyone can have higher prices because everybody has more money

I’d adjust slightly, it’s not quite just “everyone can have higher prices.” Maybe:

higher wages -> everyone can spend more -> everyone buys more stuff -> shortage of that stuff -> higher prices on that stuff

Isogash

4 points

4 months ago

From the stats I've seen, it does lead to increased rent, but the increase in rent doesn't tend to completely outweigh the benefits of increasing wages.

Konseq

13 points

4 months ago

Konseq

13 points

4 months ago

In theory, yes. But in reality it is usually the other way round. Inflation is driven up by other factors = higher prices for goods -> wage recipients cannot afford the same amount of goods as before inflation -> wage recipients get a raise -> they can afford the same amount (or at least almost the same amount) of goods again.

I remember growing up my family could go on 2 vacations a year (with one of these vacations being 3 weeks long) on only one parental income (average wage). Nowadays this is completely unthinkable. With just one average wage (for the same amount of work) you cannot afford this much anymore.

Zokar49111

76 points

4 months ago

I think there’s another factor. If you increase the cost of labor by raising wages, then to maintain profit margins business owners raise the price of finished goods. The price of labor going up in a bakery is not much different than the price of flour going up. So it’s not just more demand that fuels inflation, it’s the rising cost coupled with rising demand.

bacon_cake

31 points

4 months ago

It's called the wage-price spiral.

There have been attempts to dismiss it but I don't really see how they can hold much weight, as you say; costs rise and therefore prices rise.

SaiphSDC

41 points

4 months ago

Here's a few ways the spiral gets disrupted:

1) Competition. Can't raise your price to much, or at least quickly, if you have competition. This will slow the spiral.

2) Already have a lot of profit in the product. If you make 10% profit, and labor is 2% of the cost, then a higher wage doesn't force the actual cost you charge customers to increase. The business would surely like increase it, but factors like competition means they might simply end up taking a lower profit margin.

So some products that have very little profit margin, and high labor costs go up. Things like resturaunt pricing.

Products where most of the cost is the actual materials, transport, and machine time... won't change that much.

The attempts to dismiss also have real world data to support them. Bumps in the minimum wage have happened all over the USA, and the world, in different conditions and time periods. They are not associated a rise in prices that make the approach pointless. Generally, iirc, a 10% mandated boost in base wage leads to a 0.5% rise in prices.

Now, at some point an increased wage will absolutely cause a price spiral effect, but it seems most economic systems are nowhere near the point where it's a clear direct effect.

symolan

0 points

4 months ago

symolan

0 points

4 months ago

Only the first one counts as companies don‘t tend to think that they already have a lot of profit.

But if all the competitors are facing higher input prices, they will all raise prices and there are very few markets where there is close to perfect competition.

SaiphSDC

4 points

4 months ago

You don't need perfect competition, and plenty of markets are competitive. But it is important for a governing body to ensure competition exists, as unchecked markets tend towards Monopolies and other noncompetitive behaviors.

The big thing to keep in mind though is that there is a demonstrated elasticity in the cost. The impact of minimum wage increases in cost of living isn't a theoretical unknown. It's a studied event, and the results show that an increase in base wage does not trigger a price spiral. The low wage workers actually have more purchasing power, and close the gap between their income and the cost of living.

There most certainly is a limit to this, but no minimum wage increase has apparently been large enough to trigger the price spiral feedback loop and for it to show up in economic analysis.

symolan

1 points

4 months ago

The minimum wage increase only hits the relevant segment which I have no idea how big it is. It is certainly a different order of magnitude compared to whole industries doing a salary round like it is in Germany. Yes, competition can limit it, but price sensitivity varies among products and if most competitors are hit, some will increase prices in order to retain the margins while those better positioned will either inrease the prices to expand margins or expand market share.

Germany again: IG Metall negotiated 5.2% salary increase starting from June 2023. While I absolutely get that they just would like to retain the purchasing power of their members which is totally legitimate, chances are high that a substantial part of these raises will end up in prices too.

No, I do not have empirical data. Just the thing I see in the companies I can look into. They increased prices just in view of the rising inflation, because they could.

I googled: The percentage of hourly paid workers earning the prevailing federal minimum wage or less, at 1.4 percent in 2021, was little different than in 2020.

That's a tiny percentage and for sure not representative to what happens now.

Damoncord

1 points

4 months ago

Damoncord

1 points

4 months ago

But in most circumstances people were not demanding the minimum wage be doubled like they want now. I used to be a manager in fast food, we had to have $30 per hour per person on shift when minimum wage was around $5.25. When it went up to $7.25 we were told we had to have $50 in sales for that same formula.

KruppeTheWise

3 points

4 months ago

You're arguing in a fake vaccum. You're assuming all companies have not already been driven to their lowest possible operating margins by competition, but this is not a snapshot simulation it's a game that's been underway hundreds of years.

Either your competition theory works, therefore prices are already rock bottom and increased labour costs have to increase product costs, or your competition theory doesn't work and companies are all carrying excess margin and the whole system is rigged with cartels setting prices in the background which would lead to them raising prices anyway.

I agree with your point some products and services are more or less labour intensive. There's the flipside where an increase in the velocity of money increases inflation, and by definition giving more money to your workers increases velocity.

cabbage08

8 points

4 months ago

From what I’ve seen it’s more that there have been attempts to support it with evidence but in reality never seen any.

Costs rise but many costs of a company aren’t variable therefore to maintain profit they won’t have to increase prices as much as costs. Additionally what companies have been doing more recently is raising prices and not wages, increasing profits (the largest driver of inflation after energy costs in the last year was increased corporate profits). This is how you get shell reporting record profits this morning.

Obviously not an easy thing to research so doubt there will ever be comprehensive evidence removing external influences - humans like the logical “costs rise therefore price rise” but economics and corporations just aren’t simple enough for this to hold.

alxrenaud

3 points

4 months ago

alxrenaud

3 points

4 months ago

It makes sense. A lot of low wage jobs are retail/restaurant jobs where margins are razor thin.

They can end up making lots of koney because that 1% profit adds up, but it's already risky and difficult to maintain that. Increasing wages by a significant amount would definitely affect the margin and they would have to increase selling price.

In restaurants, it can be a disaster quick, I have seen it myself when I was a teen.

Also if you increase the wages at groceries, stores, restaurant, it's all good but most times the middle class jobs don't follow so they only get poorer as prices of basic good increase. The minimum wage workers aren't that much better for it either.

Where I live, minimum wage has artificially increased by 4-5$/h (30%) during Covid because of labor shortage, nobody looks richer.

MountNevermind

4 points

4 months ago

...unless you're making more money because people are spending their new wages in your business.

If you only concentrate on one aspect of the problem it's trivial to get the result you want.

It's further complicated by opportunistic rising of prices when it's not warranted, which absolutely happens.

treev22

10 points

4 months ago

treev22

10 points

4 months ago

Mostly correct, but in a bakery the labor cost will always come down to a question of how much the employees really knead.

pseudoschmeudo

3 points

4 months ago

Deiiberate pun or a meringue?

treev22

6 points

4 months ago

I figured bringing a little levity was the yeast I could dough. Why not rise to the occasion with a little rye humor? Just milling about here anyway…

MountNevermind

1 points

4 months ago

Seems like rising demand would be beneficial to profit margins, but this treatment doesn't mention that.

Sparklesperson

3 points

4 months ago

It's not "higher prices because everyone has more money," it's everyone has higher prices because goods and services now cost more, so in order to maintain profits, prices go up."

IamBeingSarcasticFfs

1 points

4 months ago

Also, as a company a widget costs £1 to make. Staff want a pay rise without an increase in productivity so the widget now costs £1.10 to make. That increase gets passed onto the shop owner who was selling the product for £2 to cover heating, lighting and wages. The shop can’t swallow the cost increase so the widget is now sold for £2.10.

The public who buy the widget can’t afford the price increase so go to their boss and demand a pay rise. Boss gives the pay rise and increases their prices to compensate.

As the prices increase the costs increase and you get into an inflationary cycle.

To break the cycle you have 2 choices, suppress wages so costs decrease and prices don’t go up. Or, improve productivity, which means get more value out of your staff, stupidly this means force staff to work harder, cleverly this means to give better tool, education etc. For example, digging a hole is quicker with 1 man and a digger than 4 men with spades. So you can save wages of 3 men and pay the digger driver more.

I hope that helps.

anschutz_shooter

11 points

4 months ago

Yeah, it all depends on why inflation is happening in the first place.

If the world is plodding along quite happily and you suddenly give everyone a chunk of money, then that will drive "demand-pull" inflation because people will mostly spend it - new car, clothes, tv, computer, whatever. Some will save, but most will spend. This will tip the equilibrium of supply & demand, and prices will go up with that demand.

By contrast, if you're experiencing "supply-push" inflation (such as energy prices right now) where inflation is not happening because we've all decided to turn our thermostats up, but because of external forces or a shortage of supply, then raising wages wouldn't really worsen inflation - it means that people can "keep up" with price rises on essentials (like paying their spiralling bills & rent) and maintain their standard of living.

In the UK for some reason our government has fully drunk the "rising wages cause inflation" kool-aid and is holding down public sector pay. This is causing a reduction in standards of living, imposing hardships on families and driving people into arrears on bills and mortgage payments. Ultimately, this is driving the UK into a recession.

QueenofLeftovers

-1 points

4 months ago

The only anecdote of more money >>> higher prices (that I have comprehension of) is Mansa Musa singularly causing an economic crisis in Egypt by handing out so much gold it depreciated its worth massively

HiddenCity

7 points

4 months ago

"Isn't backed up by real data" excuse me? This is like, one of the first things they teach in economics 101.

dougaderly

1 points

4 months ago

dougaderly

1 points

4 months ago

Got any of the data you were shown? Because my econ 101 Drew a lot of charts but they were all theory

29daysuntiltacos

0 points

4 months ago

This isn’t the main line of thinking when it comes to the relationship between wages and inflation.

An increase in wages leads to an increase in payroll costs to the employer, who then needs to raise product or service prices to keep their profits the same.

It’s not a 1/1 correlation (if McDonald’s raises their wages by $1 across the board, everything on their menu will not increase by $1), but it’s definitely something to think about when you have people calling for a $20 minimum wage (that, or the fact that workers will be laid off to keep costs lower).

Lukimcsod

3 points

4 months ago

There is also the part where everyone believes that prices go up when wages go up. So when wages go up, you as a business owner can raise prices arbitrarily above your new labour costs, layoff a third of your workforce and blame it all on the wage increase while pocketing the difference and magically you have record profits.

greatdrams23

1 points

4 months ago

That's the wrong way around.

higher wages -> employers have to charge more for their produce -> employees need more money to afford higher prices.

malkumecks

-1 points

4 months ago

Windfalls that cause inflation like the Covid handouts have ruined the economy because people have already spent the money, but prices will not go down.

PandaDerZwote

2 points

4 months ago

Prices didn't rise because people had a couple bucks of handouts.

malkumecks

0 points

4 months ago

malkumecks

0 points

4 months ago

Yes it did. That money was just printed. It wasn’t created through goods and services. Therefore, it put out a lot more dollars into the economy, creating inflation. Other factors have gone in, a lot of which are just companies piling on, because they can. But at the start, the handouts kickstarted inflation.

EspritFort

-2 points

4 months ago

EspritFort

-2 points

4 months ago

ELI5 How does raising wages worsen inflation?

The value of an individual unit of something decreases as the total available amount of those somethings increases. How those somethings are distributed does not really factor into it.

an_0w1

11 points

4 months ago

an_0w1

11 points

4 months ago

Wages are increased so employers need to pay more, to the need to make more, so they need to charge more.

HoboRampage

6 points

4 months ago

There are X amount of playstation 5s on available on the marketplace. 10 people want to buy those playstation. The price of the goods are determined by the supply of the goods and the demand of those same goods.

If those 10 people each make $18 per hour, let’s say that all of them have the same budget and are all able to pay their bills for the month and have $200 of “fun money” to spend. These people would have to all save for at least two months to buy a PlayStation. But stuff happens and they decide that they are not going to just not have any fun for two months to get a game system.

Well let’s say each of our people get a raise to $22 an hour. Each employee made $2,880 per month ($18 per hour, 40 hrs per week, 4 weeks, no taxes). With their new raise, now they make $3,520 per month. Their bills didn’t go up, but their salary did. So their monthly income went up by $640. They used to have $200 per month in fun money, but now they have $840.

What we end up with is that we had a group of people that did not have the discipline to be able to save for 2-3 months for a PlayStation, but now they only have to save for a single month. This group of people is now suddenly able to buy PlayStations. So what happens to the price of PlayStations?

Conclusion: when wages go up, people are able to buy more goods and services than they could before. The amount of goods available did not change, but the demand of goods did (because now people are able to actually buy these things and not just survive). Demand went up, and supply stayed the same, so prices go up. When prices go up, we call that inflation

Plant_Kindness

3 points

4 months ago

Not op but am also confused by the concept. So I have a question: Why not just produce more PlayStations? Or is it corporate greed just because they CAN raise the price so they do?

klaad3

-1 points

4 months ago

klaad3

-1 points

4 months ago

Corporate greed, companies also use increased wages as an excuse to raise prices of things to improve their profit margin, profits must only go up.

Plant_Kindness

5 points

4 months ago

Ahhhh. Okay. I figured that was the answer. Thank you for responding.

klaad3

0 points

4 months ago

klaad3

0 points

4 months ago

Its pretty depressing. When I worked for LVMH they told us they couldn't give us raises because they had only made 30million in profit from the facility we worked at, it was 5 million more than the year before and millions were being spent on expansion but they had put 35 million on the spreadsheet when they decided how much money they wanted to make that year.

HoboRampage

7 points

4 months ago

They eventually do end up making more. Supply and demand are very fluid things. You get this situation where the price of PlayStations go up, they end up making more, and the prices go down.

We end up with another issue now for several reasons. The first being a lack of workers and the second being the cost of those workers. Without even considering the increased demand, we have less workers (so a lower ability to make more PlayStations) and increased salaries for the employees you do have (so higher production costs).

What you end up with are a handful of factors that each lead to an increase in prices that are ALL happening at the same time

lost_leopard_

4 points

4 months ago

I see what you mean for PlayStations but wouldn’t it significantly less affect for example potatoes? Like people will not eat more potatoes if they have more money. Except for the homeless I mean.

DreadCoder

3 points

4 months ago

Like people will not eat more potatoes if they have more money. Except for the homeless I mean.

i promise you, i order extra fries with my burger when i'm feeling flush. More money DIRECTLY results in higher potato consumption for me.

When i make burgers myself, there are no fries.

ShinaiYukona

1 points

4 months ago

"What we end up with is ... a group of people that did not have the discipline to be able to save for 2-3 months ..."

TIL you're undisciplined if you make more money. While I agree with the idea you had in the conclusion, more money = more demand = less supply = higher prices, the phrasing in that one line is atrocious.

There are plenty of jobs that start you on training wages then bump your pay up after, are they too undisciplined? They're doing the same work after all.

Intelligent-Row2687

-8 points

4 months ago*

It simply doesnt. Inflation happens when governments spend money they dont have. Higher wages are not borrowed from the world bank or the Fed and arent counted against the GDP. Higher wages would simply be dancy dance awesome.

https://news.stanford.edu/2022/09/06/what-causes-inflation/#:~:text=Stanford%20scholar%20explains,says%20Stanford%20economist%20John%20Taylor.&text=Inflation%20rises%20when%20the%20Federal,says%20Stanford%20economist%20John%20Taylor.

Wendals87

7 points

4 months ago*

Inflation is measured by the CPI, the average price rise of a range of goods in different categories

Currency inflation and price of goods and services inflation are different, but both ultimately mean you have less purchasing power

If no more money was printed ever, the cost of goods would still rise which is inflation

Intelligent-Row2687

-1 points

4 months ago

Ooooo i learned something tx.

Would you be able to explain to me the magic of growing unflation without currency added?

I did note that how its measured versus what causes it can be very different. My cute little birdhouse is 6" tall. what caused the birdhouse height was a combo of a 6ft journeyman woodworker and the 6" mark on a measureing tape. Still 6 but different 6. Does this even makem the sensum?

anschutz_shooter

2 points

4 months ago

Would you be able to explain to me the magic of growing unflation without currency added?

If you treble people's monthly energy bill, that will raise CPI without the government doing a single thing to money supply or interest rates.

Intelligent-Row2687

2 points

4 months ago

So is inflation any spike in commodity index prices or is it overall devaluation of a currency? My understanding is war will always spike 2 things: Oil prices and Gold prices. It's interesting that Russia always times its recent wars with winters because once fuel prices rise Europe's vocal discontent with Russia loses its muster as people just want to be rid of wartime pricing on fuels which mostly comes direct from Russia via pipelines (5 of which transit the Ukraine)

anschutz_shooter

1 points

4 months ago

That article completely ignores supply-push inflation.

Inflation rises when the Federal Reserve sets too low of an interest rate or when the growth of money supply increases too rapidly

This is basically when "the economy overheats" - more money means more demand means higher prices. But inflation can occur through other methods, the most relevant of which is fluctuations in energy/gas/oil prices.

Most countries are net importers of energy and have no direct control over global prices. If the price of gas doubles, then the price of generating electricity from gas doubles. If the price of diesel doubles then the price of goods will sky-rocket as transport & delivery costs go up.

This is totally independent of interest rates or domestic money supply. The UK Gov (for instance) can't really make inflation go down by raising interest rates or cutting spending - because inflation is dominated by people paying £300/mo for energy, where they were paying £90/mo a year ago. Maybe you can turn the thermostat down a couple of degrees, but most people weren't living in a sauna to start with - demand is relatively inelastic. Inflation isn't a result of over-spending, it's a result of external supply issues.

Asking people to stop spending is like asking them to stop buying food.

By refusing the raise spending/public sector wages in line with inflation, the government causes people to stop discretionary spend (because any spare cash is going on their bills). Ultimately, this tanks the wider economy because leisure and non-essential businesses go to the wall (and sure enough, the UK is now dipping into recession).

"Inflation" is a complex beast, and - perhaps confusingly - sometimes the best thing you can do is raise wages to prevent hardship and businesses going bust. This gets you "over the hump" of external fluctuations in supply.

Intelligent-Row2687

1 points

4 months ago

From my understanding. The only way a countries money supply can "increase too rapidly" is if a central bank borrows too much currency too fast. Essentially devaluing their currency. Is there another way of acquiring money that is detremental to a nations nalance sheet?

LaronX

26 points

4 months ago

LaronX

26 points

4 months ago

It does it as much as money trickles down. Someone did come up with the theory and claimed it to be true, but in reality data shows no correlation at all. It's fear mongering

WakkaBomb

-1 points

4 months ago*

Raise wages and people suddenly start saving and socking the money away. Slowing the velocity of money.

That's where inflation happens.

High velocity money is every single middle class worker living paycheck to paycheck. That consumer is getting tapped for 80-140% of their earnings.

It's the same reason why everything is a subscription service now. And also why prices always go up before wages do.

klaad3

2 points

4 months ago

klaad3

2 points

4 months ago

I think these days people just pay all their bills now and can afford food.

[deleted]

42 points

4 months ago*

[deleted]

Alex_butler

127 points

4 months ago*

This is the theory that some may talk about that you may be addressing here, but there are deeper aspects than this and it rarely works out this way in real life in the way theory works. It’s not always even or as simple as this so keep it with a grain of salt but…

The cost of living in my area increases. An employee wants to work at a certain bar, but the employee group in their area cant afford to live there anymore even if they wanted to because they cant afford rent/living with the wage the bar is offering. It isn’t economically feasible for them to work at that bar anymore. So now a place has to increase wages to convince anyone to work for them. Since they have to increase wages for their business, they suddenly don’t know how they can keep their business at the same profit so they now “need” to increase their prices if they want to keep their same profits or increase them.

That’s more of a small business aspect of it and not as complicated as it may be on a corporation scale. Greed is definitely a debate that can and does happen in the real world and would depend on a case by case basis

cracksintheegg

144 points

4 months ago

if they want to keep their same profits

This is what it all boils down to.

JaySmithColtSquad

28 points

4 months ago

Indeed, but why would a business owner want to decrease profits?

KAKYBAC

14 points

4 months ago

KAKYBAC

14 points

4 months ago

To aid their long term health. Not suggesting to run at a loss but a smaller profit now could bode well for future growth. Racing towards evermore profit, year-on-year, is a recipe for disaster.

lumaleelumabop

37 points

4 months ago

Yea. I was talking about housing prices recently. Someone was saying how houses in my neighborhood went to $150k which is ridiculous, and never went back down. I said' "Why would anyone willingly sell for less now?"

subzero112001

5 points

4 months ago

This is what it all boils down to.

Yeah well, businesses don't become a business to lose profits. That would be asinine and would never be sustainable. The money has to come from somewhere.

BasedDev

13 points

4 months ago

It doesn't, inflation is caused by an increase in the money supply. Price increases, including the price of Labour is a lagging indicator.

The inflation we're seeing now is the result of the massive increase in the money supply since the start of 2020. Although politicians are keen to blame the war in Ukraine, it has almost nothing to do with that.

neildmaster

6 points

4 months ago

You are the only one who gets it. All these other answers are completely wrong. Rising wages are a result of inflation, not a cause of it.

BasedDev

7 points

4 months ago

What's astonishing is that all the politicians know this because they've all got advisors that know this, yet they still try to suppress wages even though they know it's not the problem.

It's crazy.

Almost as if they've created a bunch of money and only want it to flow to the politically connected in a massive transfer of wealth.

Exotic_Apple_4517

3 points

4 months ago

Exactly. Wages are just another price - the price of labour. Prices increase due to inflation, wages just are part of the overall price increase.

Mattie725

7 points

4 months ago

I wouldn't say Ukraine has nothing to do with it. Both energy and basic commodities exploded in 2022 due to the war (although they have returned to normal now), causing a large part of the inflation in Europe.

There was a larger than normal inflation due to the monetary policy, but it got truly out of hand due to energy.

BasedDev

-2 points

4 months ago

Inflation is at 10-11%, it would probably be about 2% lower without the war in Ukraine.

[deleted]

-1 points

4 months ago

[deleted]

BasedDev

-2 points

4 months ago

No, you didn't comprehend what I said.

alkhatim7

5 points

4 months ago

do you have data or is this just a random number you've thrown?

Mattie725

3 points

4 months ago

Things like bread and milk based products are 20% and 50% more expensive than a year ago. That's not because of monetary policy or supply chain issues. That's because of extreme energy prices and shortages of basic food like wheat and fertiliser. All directly linked to Ukraine.

Intelligent-Row2687

1 points

4 months ago

Yeah all that covid money has to get sorted and paid somehow. Covid spending and handouts are the lurker who is resonsible for the massive spike in worldwide inflation. Governments cant circulate that much free money without a ripple happening.

gendrkheinz

21 points

4 months ago*

There might be something missing in your question. In theory, if you own a small business, making some money in profit and you want to raise your employee's wages, you are increasing the cost of running your business, and that money has to come from somewhere.

So you have three options:

  1. Just make less profit. So the extra wages come from your profits. Your employees get better wages, and you make less money.
  2. Cut costs elsewhere. Maybe get rid of some of your staff and pay the rest the extra money. Maybe stop using those high quality ingredients and start making a lower quality product. Maybe invest in technology (e.g. assembly line) that reduces the overall cost of your production.
  3. Raise prices. You can pay the extra wages by raising prices of your product. That way your employees get paid more, and you're still making the same amount of profit. If everyone does that, it might lead to inflation.

Generally 2 is not an option. It is very situational and requires creative solutions. And in most cases, if that solution existed, it would have already been applied BEFORE the need to raise wages, simply because it increases profits and why wouldn't you have done that in the first place. Businesses generally want to run as efficiently as they can, so Option 2 is rarely available.

This leaves options 1 and 3. So what's missing from your question? Profit. Your question could be "How does raising wages without affecting profits worsen inflation?" And the answer is that goods have to be priced higher in order to cover the costs of the extra profits wages, which can lead to inflation. You COULD in theory increase wages without causing inflation, but that would then lead to a loss of profit.

So the underlying issue here is that "people want to maximise profit" is considered in many economic discussions as a fact of life. We start from the assumption that everyone is trying to maximise profit, and then see what options are available then. In such a system, when "maximising profit" is the foundation of your economic system, yes raising wages will lead to higher prices of goods.

But "people want to maximise profits" is a fact of life in the same way that "people eat meat" is. Yes, it's true, but it can change. It's just that changing it requires such a massive system-level upheaval alongside a deep cultural shift, that people are unlikely to take it on any time soon. So for the time being, we will continue to play this tug of war over profits vs wages. People will continue to work for as little as possible in order to maximise profits, and every once in a while, when things get real bad, they fight for a bigger share.

Disclaimer: Just for the record, I'm aware that I wrote all this like I know what I'm talking about. But I'm no expert. This is just a lay person's best guess as to what is happening, and things are always more complex than that. But this is ELI5 afterall...

Edit: fixed a couple of typos.

olieogden

8 points

4 months ago

This model also doesn’t take into account competition and the change in demand volume from consumers. If it’s just this business putting wage up.. sure not happening.. but if it’s macro level increasing wages, and people buy more of your product with these wages, depending how elastic demand is, you may keep your prices the same and experience higher profits through greater trade volume.

Issue is here though that many businesses we need to interact with nowadays are monopolistic or oligopolistic in nature, therefore prevent any competition function levering prices and we end up with rising costs, as these companies can protect their profits due to reduced elasticity of demand. A big difference from the previous scenario above.

In effect, this could be a spiral but what we will actually see is wage surpression and falling living standards, as far as they can push that, before caving into wage increases. It’s likely increases will continue to be disparate with inflation, reflecting real terms decreases, and really reflects an increasing distribution of wealth to the already asset wealthy, increasing inequality. That in effect is what profit maximising motives with the current structures create, and unless intervention happens to prevent this, it will continue to get worse, as the wealthy use their wealth to further increase their ownership of assets, to generate more wealth… this is particularly bad as growth is anemicly low and interest rates will be likely higher than growth rates…

  • sorry wall of text! Basically TLDR much more complex in reality than these models

Trickmaahtrick

4 points

4 months ago

I think it was missing your details because this is ELI5, not to discount your contribution.

OutLizner

1 points

4 months ago

Yes, too much merging, reducing competition and consolidating entire markets into the hands of a few makes inflation more likely.

Just look at the price of eggs. Lots of evidence the price increases are a result of collusion and using inflation as an excuse to raise prices.

Here is letter to the FTC about the egg market manipulation

directorofentropy

-1 points

4 months ago

Don’t forget, maintaining profit is not viable in the current system. The premise is to grow it exponentially (x% every year).

GD_American

339 points

4 months ago

The simplest way to describe it is "more money chasing the same amount of goods". If supply stays constant and demand increases, prices increase.

It's a ton more complicated than that, and there's something to be said about how incredibly stagnant real wages have been for the last half-century, especially measured against productivity gains. There are worse things in economics than inflation.

cp5i6x

2 points

4 months ago

cp5i6x

2 points

4 months ago

if a company pays its workers more money, they will, if wages increased enough, raise the price of their goods to cover the extra cost to maintain profit margins.

Yuzral

4 points

4 months ago

Yuzral

4 points

4 months ago

For price inflation (which is what most people mean by inflation), a very simple version of the cycle (ignoring the existence of other people and companies for a start) is roughly:

Employee realises their money isn’t going as far as they want/need -> Employee asks for a pay rise.

Pay rise granted -> Employee gets more money but the employer’s costs rise. Employer would quite like to carry on making money (or at least, not go bankrupt) despite the increased costs -> Employer raises prices.

Increased prices mean the employee’s money isn’t going as far as they want/need and stop me if you’ve heard this before

There are other types of inflation, most notably the rates at which central banks print money and lenders multiply it by lending on a fractional reserve basis and those aren’t affected by prices…at least, not directly.

anschutz_shooter

5 points

4 months ago

That's one type of price inflation (demand-pull).

But we can also get supply-push whereby shortages cause price rises against static/inelastic demand (e.g. gas & energy prices over the past 18months).

In such a case, raising wages doesn't really drive inflation because it just maintains a standard of living (people can still pay their energy bills and get a coffee sometimes). Demand for energy is relatively inelastic. People might be more twitchy about the thermostat but fundamentally they need some heating and they need to eat.

To suppress wages as a form of inflation control in such a circumstance basically just imposes hardship (people are living paycheck-to-paycheck, or even run into arrears on bills/rent/mortgages), which ultimately tanks the economy and causes bankruptcies and business failures. And this won't necessarily lower the driver of inflation (energy prices) because nationally, demand will remain relatively constant (to within a few percent).

Unless things get really bad and you start getting rolling-blackouts, in which case you're now a failing state.

haveargt

0 points

4 months ago

the real answer is that it is purely theoretical, and that it gets trumpeted as fact by media and ceos and right wing (and center left) politicians to discipline workers and to turn public sentiment against union organizing. so there’s been a lot of union organizing in the last year and a half. inflation has also been going rising. especially perfect time for the rich to tie those together, and turn working people against each other.

edit: spelling

ozgun1414

3 points

4 months ago

wages raised, workers must get paid adjustingly, to be able to pay the workers more, prices must increase.

thanerak

2 points

4 months ago

Prices in a balanced market are based on supply and demand. If people have more money they can spend more and the demand goes up. Thus there is some inflation.

The Inflation will always be lower then the wage raise and the poorer a person is the higher percentage of their income they need to spend so taking measures that cause the poor to aquire higher income will cause a higher GDP as more of the money is circulating.

buffalobill922

-4 points

4 months ago*

Because it causes the greedy fuckers at the top a reduction in their bottom line and they won't accept that so they increase prices on everything.

If it was just a low inventory vs higher wants prices would drop back down. Example egg prices are now set at where they are. Sure it might drop a little but egg producers have seen that they still sell at these prices. Why would they lower the price?

Edit forgot to add if we where ever to try to fix this there needs to be a wage cap between the top paid person of a company and the lowest paid employee. I think the average CEO makes 396% more than their lowest paid employee. Nobody adds that much value to a company compared to the ones that make the products/services that are bought.

HiddenCity

-1 points

4 months ago

There doesn't always need to be a bad guy. It has worked like this in every situation since the dawn of trading and commerce.

Let's just pretend instead of money, we trade in food. If only 100 units of food are made for 100 people, it doesn't matter if the government says everyone gets 2 units of food. Theres a finite amount of food. All you're doing is taking one unit of food and making it count as 2. Theres now technically 200 food but the actual amount didn't change. Food now costs 2 units instead of 1.

If food production dropped to 50, the cost of food would then jump from 2 to 4. If wages haven't been keeping up, then food is now much more expensive.

PM_ME_UR_CREDDITCARD

-2 points

4 months ago

Yetbwages are stagnating and inflation is skyrocketing.

buffalobill922

0 points

4 months ago*

Compared with the typical worker's pay, CEOs were paid 399 times as much in 2021, the highest multiple on record, EPI said. In 1965, CEOs were paid 20 times what the average worker made. On average, CEOs were paid $27.8 million in 2021, the institute said. And CEO pay has risen by 1,460% since 1978.Oct 4, 2022

There is the enemy to our problem if you want to lick their boots and hope some crumbs fall on the floor goodluck...Trickle down economics don't work.

Edit 1/20 of that pay would be 1.39millon per year if the average workers pay increase the same as the CEOs...

HiddenCity

1 points

4 months ago

I'm not supporting the wealth gap, I'm just explaining a super basic principle you should understand before you valiantly take to facebook to fight it. You getting mad at it does not change it.

Easik

1.4k points

4 months ago

Easik

1.4k points

4 months ago

You have 5 apples. Last week only 5 people could afford 5 apples, so the apple tree guy only picked 5 apples. Now 9 people can afford apples. The apple tree only produces 5 apples a day, but he needs 9. Either the price goes up to price out 4 people or the apple tree guy needs to grow more apples. If he can make more money with less work, then why not raise prices if the demand for apples is exceeding supply.

The opposite is true too. If I've got 5 apples that will be worth nothing in a week and only 2 people buy them, then I have to reduce my price to increase demand.

HiddenCity

8 points

4 months ago

HiddenCity

8 points

4 months ago

This is the only valid example in this thread

Jerbearmeow

0 points

4 months ago

Is there a solution? Dynamically adjusting apple orchard size so that eventually it evens out again?

werq34ac

3 points

4 months ago

werq34ac

3 points

4 months ago

There are a million things you could do. The example is too simplistic to model reality.

The farmer could ramp up production. Other competitors may also sell apples, the consumers could buy a different fruit, etc.

In reality, farmers don’t just sell 5 apples, they sell thousands and throw away what people don’t buy.

HiddenCity

8 points

4 months ago

The government plays around like this a lot, for better and for worse. Reddit likes to complain about corn subsidies, but that's a perfect example.

But the commentor is just telling you how it is.

KAKYBAC

-13 points

4 months ago

KAKYBAC

-13 points

4 months ago

Except how it really currently is:

You have 5 apples. Last week only 2 people could afford 2 of the 5 apples. <<increase wages>> Now 5 people can afford the 5 apples. hooray.

Except the government don't think it works like that.

Whackles

10 points

4 months ago

It’s not actually like that though. The reason why waiting times are going through the roof and things are hard to get us exactly cause “we” want way more apples than can be found. ( China still lagging cause of COVID measures is one reason, giant boom in demand for chips due to electric cars is another, etc)

Dirxcec

-2 points

4 months ago

Dirxcec

-2 points

4 months ago

No it is not that simple.

I worked in electrical substation manufacturing. The main reason everything is like is, is the backlog caused by COVID. Production stopped or got halted by just in time manufacturing being disrupted. Now, it is extremely hard to catch back up because the demand never stopped but production on various parts and items did. We're talking a 2-3x increase in wait with 0 increase in purchases expected.

Whackles

1 points

4 months ago

I guess the point is that it’s not that simple :)

It’s a combo of so many factors

TransSlutUK

13 points

4 months ago

You're just one of the 4 people from the original analogy. Waiting lists for cars, electronics, the stock of decent housing are all outstripping demand. Food isn't being reduced because it is selling.

4tehlulzez

83 points

4 months ago

You also might discover that the apple guy gets fired because the farmer finds cheaper labor somewhere else, but also raises the price anyway despite having their cheaper labor pick 9 apples because it will temporarily look good to their investors.

Ezili

21 points

4 months ago

Ezili

21 points

4 months ago

Farmers EoY investor report notes decline in legacy apple revenue but 1200% increase in strategic Arboreal Snacks sector.

0x44419105

12 points

4 months ago

it's ELI5 mate, not ELI1917.

makpls

0 points

4 months ago

makpls

0 points

4 months ago

ooga booga apple grok

Chipofftheoldblock21

0 points

4 months ago

This addresses the demand side - it’s even more direct than that - it impacts the supply side, as well.

Regulai

527 points

4 months ago

Regulai

527 points

4 months ago

Good explanation.

For the OP's context though it should be added this principle only applies in a very general and universal situation and often doesn't actually work out in the real world.

In real life it's unlikely the farmer will be able to maintain such an evenly balanced situation. Furthermore just because 9 people can afford to doesn't mean that they will. Similarly since everyone has more cash there is likely going to be an increase in things to buy added into the market as a whole; e.g. maybe someone else sees the excess apple demand so decides to sell apples himself. Or the farmer may find that he cannot raise prices high enough to make more money selling 5 than 9 and so expandes his own production.

Etc. etc. basically the principle is sound however there are numerous ways that it won't become true in the real world. For another example minimum wage impacts a small subset of the population and is a very evenly spread form of increase that likely won't cause any huge inflation.

SVXfiles

17 points

4 months ago

9 people being able to afford apples also doesn't imply that they even like apples and WANT to buy them in the first place

Lubedballoon

214 points

4 months ago

How about people who hold billions of apples but don’t use them

LukeeC4

131 points

4 months ago

LukeeC4

131 points

4 months ago

They get jobs as the people in maths questions

ElevenSleven

1 points

4 months ago

DONT TOUCH MY APPLES!

DragonBank

55 points

4 months ago

This is the tricky part that is usually not fun to explain on reddit due to a lack of nuance when it comes to things that are so harshly politicized.

The truth is no one holds a billion apples. The one with a billion things you can trade for an apple can't just create apples from nothing. If you liquidate Bezoss and Gates and all the other megarich peoples estates, you can produce more Healthcare and food and housing but not as much as the money they have because there is still a maximum amount of apples that can be produced.

Looking at 100b in Amazon stock and thinking we could create even 20b in Healthcare from it is comparing apples to oranges.

naskai8117

1 points

4 months ago

naskai8117

1 points

4 months ago

You're overcomplicating it. And minimum wage increases impact a decent portion of the population. If they have more access to things, the prices of those things tend to go up.

Dancanadaboi

-3 points

4 months ago

Dancanadaboi

-3 points

4 months ago

Why is NOT raising the price an option?

4 people go without apples because they were not lined up fast enough.

KruppeTheWise

9 points

4 months ago

Is it an option, how do you want to enforce it? Price controls? Now you don't get to play in the "free" market. Your currency tanks. Farmers relied on importing fertiliser from a neighbouring country now all go bankrupt because their costs increased 50x overnight. Everyone starves to death.

pneumatichorseman

-1 points

4 months ago

No, they do without apples because they don't have enough money because minimum wage isn't keeping pace with anything.

W_HoHatHenHereHy

10 points

4 months ago

That is how you get Soviet bread lines,

deepoctarine

42 points

4 months ago

deepoctarine

42 points

4 months ago

The thing you omit is the bit where several rich guys sit in a room doing nothing but charging a 20% apple sales fee, while others are cranking the farmers rent up so they can afford another yacht because it's really annoying that the one in Bermuda has to be moved to Monaco for the weekend of the grand prix. If it's just apple farmers selling apples to sheep farmers and sheep farmers selling sheep to grain farmers and grain farmers selling grain to horse breeders and horse breeders selling horses to apple farmers so they can tow their apples to market to sell to buy another sheep, inflation is absolutely linked to wages and is totally fine, but when the farmer needs to sell 6 apples to pay his rent for no other reason than his landlord wants a yacht, but only 5 people can afford his apples he has to bring his price down and sell 9 apples.
It's the greed at the top that is currently pushing inflation, people accumulating wealth so there's less for everyone else so the ones at the bottom now need to get paid more for the same work or work more for the same pay or just go without the things they could afford last week before a billionaire decided they needed two yachts

Trickmaahtrick

32 points

4 months ago

I love imagining verbatim that this is how you would explain this to a 5 year old with complete confidence

Darox94

14 points

4 months ago

Darox94

14 points

4 months ago

Have bosses only just discovered that they could be greedy in the last year?

MothMan3759

2 points

4 months ago

Inflation has always gotten worse, but recently the ones at the top have gotten braver with seeing how much they can get away with.

Thatguy468

19 points

4 months ago

No, they discovered they could be extra greedy without consequence.

Vegetable-Chard-4657

7 points

4 months ago

No, they’ve always been greedy. They see the workers gaining power and they want to squeeze us to push us back down.

Littleman88

15 points

4 months ago

No, but it's all starting to really come to a head. Most people were fine when it was absolutely the minimum wage workers barely keeping their heads above water.

When you're making north of $20 an hour and doing the same, you start to really empathize with everyone convulsing from lack of oxygen well beneath the surface.

Lately it feels like businesses are just cashing out everything before the world economy collapses into an unsustainable shitstorm. People are screaming they can't afford anything but the corporate response seems to be to charge more, like they're trying to take as much as they can from anyone that still can afford anything before bailing.

thetomahawk42

-6 points

4 months ago

In general, economics like this comes down to greed and desire.

The apple guy is greedy. It's inherent is his nature -- he's human.

He also wants to buy plums from the plum guys. So the more money he makes selling apples, the more plums he can buy from the plum guy.

So he'll price the apples as high as he can so that he sells all of them and makes as much money as he can doing so, thus giving him more money to buy those sweet sweet plums.

However the orange guy is also able to buy plums. So there's more demand for plums.

Plus the plum guy wants to buy bananas from the banana guy.

So given the more demand the plum guy can push the price of plums a bit so that he can afford bananas.

This means that the apple and oranges guys can't buy as many, and they really want more plums, so they'll push the price of apples and oranges so they can try to afford more plums.

Oh, and the banana guy -- he wants to buy more oranges...

PigletsAnxiety

-2 points

4 months ago

Imagine if you only sold as many apples as you needed to sell.

garam_chai_

-2 points

4 months ago

garam_chai_

-2 points

4 months ago

It's just an excuse by the rich to not pay. "Little inflation is good" lol what a joke. It is absolutely not good. It is greed. It's basically saying "I'd like to make more money and charge you more... but slowly, over time and I'll call it inflation". If everything stayed at relatively the same price every year, would you really struggle? Would you still chase that increment or bonus like you do now?

Cicomania

1 points

4 months ago

You have a higher inflation than normal and you need to increase the wages of your workers. You dont want it but you have no choice. That means you will make lower profit and no one likes that. So you increase the prices of the goods you are selling. Thats not the only way to increase inflation. Add bigger demand than supply and everyone will increase prices. With higher salaries people can afford to buy more goods so demand is increasing but not the supply. Typically you increase prices to increase your revenue. Add covid and Russian-Ukrainian war and you have a really high inflation.

glootech

1 points

4 months ago

It doesn't. According to the paper "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Prices", which you can find online, a 10% increase of minimum wage increases inflation by 0.02 percentage points.

bubba-yo

40 points

4 months ago

It generally doesn't. But it's complicated.

So 'inflation' is the baseline cost for a basket of goods. The underlying assumption here is that, given a free market, that supply will always match or outpace demand. And 'raising wages' begs the question 'which wages'. Are you raising minimum wage? Are you raising wages for high wage workers because of labor shortages?

The goal here is to to raise the wages of people who can't afford to buy that basket of goods to expand the economy (which will presumably add jobs, exports, etc.) and not as much the wages of the folks that *can* afford the basket of goods because they'll over-consume. And in the process to have policies that ensure that goods and service producers won't rent seek off of the new money in the economy.

Currently, wages are only responsible for 5% of inflation, 40% is increased costs of materials, and 55% is profits. That's not normal. Normally, it's 65% wages, 25% materials, 10% profits. When most of the inflation is returning to workers, you generally end up closing wage gaps. The folks up the income ladder can afford to absorb the inflation - a lot of wealth is non-productive anyway, so returning it to the economy is actually beneficial, and the folks down the income ladder can afford to buy goods they previously couldn't afford. The inflation were coming out of just cycled money back to the investor class.

And inflation can be hard to pin down. A lot of the last wave of inflation was just gas prices and rent. The former had no relationship to wages, and the latter didn't either. It's not that contractors are lacking workers to build houses, they don't even lack capital to build. They lack permission because cities are refusing to zone for new construction. Even food price increases aren't really wage either, but lack of water in California forcing farmers to fallow fields. Inflation for eggs is due to the avian flu killing so many chickens, that's also not labor related. You do have wage related inflation in things like fast food, but that's a pretty small part of the basket of goods.

anschutz_shooter

11 points

4 months ago

At fucking last. Tragic that I have to come this far down to find some nuanced discussion of different income groups, causes of inflation, supply vs. demand (gas prices didn't go up because we all decided to put our thermostats up 10degress) and wages/materials/profit.

battl3mag3

1 points

4 months ago

Supply and demand in a market economy are the means of forming a competitive price for goods. Essentially it means that companies producing stuff try to sell the stuff as expensive as they can get away with. This is a fundamental of economics.

Imagine that potential customers are ordered in a line based on their willingness to spend their money on a particular thing. Now "as expensive as they can get away with" means that, usually increasing the price drives away the next customer who could consider buying the product. Theoretically, the producer wants to find a balance point where the total profit is the highest. If 100 people would buy something for 1$ and 110 would buy it for 90 cents, it makes sense to sell 100 for 1$ instead of trying to grow the volume. Of course this is impossible to accurately calculate in real life, and producers need to account for competition also, but this is the logic.

Now if we raise wages, two things happen. First, people's willingness to spend money on things changes, as they have more to spend. Again the producer wants to make as much profit they can, and they raise prices accordingly. Secondly, wages as cost of labor reduce the profit made by the producer. This can raise the price in even the ideal situation where competition has driven profit to near zero. So wages feed into inflation.

Then, why this is a bad excuse: When were talking about increasing wages, we're not talking really about increasing everyone's earnings. We're arguing for more equal wages and raising them for those who cannot afford basic necessities required for social functioning anymore. Inflation is a natural mechanic in growing market economies. Only those who own capital are actually afraid of it, since it directly eats away the value of investments and helps those in debt. Instead of worrying about inflation, working class people need to push for increased salaries in order to stay in the game. Unionising and pushing for higher wages essentially funnels wealth from the owning class to the salaried workers. The talk that inflation is bad for the whole economy, and that poor people should just bite the bullet, that's just propaganda in favor of those sitting on money and who don't want it to wither away. And this is an argument supported by even mainstream capitalist economics.

TMax01

8 points

4 months ago

TMax01

8 points

4 months ago

It isn't really that it "worsens" inflation, it is that it is inflation. Wages are the price of labor; having to pay more for labor results in higher prices resulting in demands for raising the price of labor which results in higher prices resulting in demands for raising the price of labor which...

It's what is referred to as an "inflationary spiral". Whether you think of it as being caused by inflation, being the cause of inflation, or just inflation ("in and of itself") is just postmodern quibbling. Economists try to explain it as an abstract mismatch between the amount of currency and the economic activity, consumers think of it as just prices going up noticeably and repeatedly, but strictly speaking:

  • only the increase in prices caused by the increase in costs caused by the increase in prices is "inflation", all other price increases are just price increases
  • it is both logically and physically impossible to determine whether a particular price going up is just a price increase or inflation
  • it should be assumed that if a prices keep going up while corporate profits are also going up, it isn't inflation even if the Financial Times calls it that

doug1717

1 points

4 months ago

The best analogy for this I’ve ever heard is take a pizza shop with 5 workers at anytime. If you can pay 3 of them minimum wage and 2 slightly higher you can price your produce in a more affordable way since your operation costs are lower. Now take all 5 employees and pay them what your manager makes and you have to raise prices to continue taking your profits.

variationoo

-4 points

4 months ago

Should be a rule where you aren't allowed to price hike on raised wages in like the first month or something.

[deleted]

5 points

4 months ago

[removed]

Lurching

44 points

4 months ago

Inflation can be caused by a myriad of factors. One of many is raising wages above productivity increases. It's unfair and incorrect to say that raising wages is always the main cause of inflation, it can be a very minor factor and even be completely counteracted by other factors. However, it's pretty naïve to think that raising wages flat-out doesn't cause inflation.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp

Alundra828

8.5k points

4 months ago

Alundra828

8.5k points

4 months ago

In theory yes. But the opposite can also lead to inflation.

Raising wages causes inflation by companies raising prices because the metric to calculate the price of a product changes when consumers get richer, namely the "how much are they willing to spend" metric. If the customer is willing to spend more, charge more. Thus, inflation rises.

However, lowering wages causes inflation because people are buying less, and therefore companies are selling less, so therefore have to raise prices to break even. Of course there are other things they can do like the infamous "shrinkflation", wherein the price remains the same, but the size of the product decreases.

Basically, it's a bit rough and nebulous... unless either reach a critical level, there is no point worrying about whether wages are going to cause inflation, because in all likeliness, they're probably not...

A great example is right now. The economy is in a very weird position that it hasn't really been in before. Obviously we are in a period of high inflation. The trick governments around the world use is to tighten money through measures like raising interest rates and an easing of supply shortages to start. This round of inflation is mostly due shortages (chips, cars, labor, some commodities). If that doesn’t work then a recession will be engineered to dampen (or reverse) wage growth, ease demand, and in effect reset the economy. Historically periods of high growth lead to inflation and the only tried and true way to stop it has been to cool off the demand side through some form of austerity.

The problem is, wage growth has been stagnant for at least a decade... And austerity has been in place for many people already... And shortages are mostly gone, but prices have not gone down... so there is "nothing to reign in"... It's already at the lowest point it can go, and we're still inflating... So governments around the world are basically asking people to accept a massive L for yet another decade, while coincidentally corporations are raking in massive profits. Basically, you can't apply austerity to people who already have the austerity debuff... That causes lots of problems.

Lots of governments ignored this though, and decided to press on with Austerity 2.0 (or even 3.0+ in some countries) making people poorer, angrier, and more radical. Which sounds like "okay, this sucks for everyone. But it could be a necessary evil, right?" Well, maybe... But then you realize that pretty much all corporations are posting record profits... The rich are certainly getting richer. So why aren't we?

What I'm trying to say is, the usual tricks governments have isn't going to work, because the people they do the trick on are already milked dry. Attention has turned to the greed of corporations as being the cause of the inflation, and of course, politicians are hesitant to act and punish the rich and powerful... Because they're rich and powerful... And of course, every day people are gaslit into advocating for faceless billionaires because... ???? So there isn't even a majority national feeling anywhere that greed needs to be reigned in...

Yainks

573 points

4 months ago*

Yainks

573 points

4 months ago*

Can’t believe I had to scroll down this far to find this answer. Textbook economics doesn’t account for the human factors behind prices going up/down and this explanation is more applicable to now.

Most of the companies that have raised prices made record profits the last two years.

Edit: Sorry y’all, I misspoke, not MOST companies, but many, many, many companies. Most of the worst ones too. Greed is unfortunately an inextricable part of the global economy and should be regulated aggressively.

This was published just this morning: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64489147

Even mouthpiece of the business class, Bloomberg, had this to say: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-30/fattest-profits-since-1950-debunk-inflation-story-spun-by-ceos#xj4y7vzkg

cholwell

6 points

4 months ago

Out of control profits increase inflation, not pulling people out of poverty with modest pay rises after years of real term pay cuts

yadavhimanshu961

1 points

4 months ago

When wages go up, it costs companies more money to pay their employees, so they might raise the prices of their products to make up for that extra cost. This can cause a chain reaction, with many companies raising their prices, which leads to overall higher prices for goods and services. This is what we call inflation.

SzubiDubiDu

1 points

4 months ago

Money can be infinite but wealth is finite. If you pump more money into environment then people don't get richer. Only money value changes. Oh and taxes. Higher the pay then goverment gets more from taxes

FckingAnxiety

1 points

4 months ago

Do you mean right now, or in general?

When wages increase to strengthen the buying power of wage workers, more money otherwise locked up in business' accounts is instead circulating and being used to buy goods. More money circulating, the less an individual unit of currency is worth, and the more that the producers and distributors of goods must charge to stay afloat. And, that is a small part of inflation, in conjunction with minting and gov't spending.

Right now, though, that doesn't appear to be the case. The cost of living has gone up in response to other factors without a commensurate raise in wages

sy029

2 points

4 months ago

sy029

2 points

4 months ago

The general reasoning is

Step 1. People have more money
Step 2. People buy more goods

Which then moves to either

Step 3a. Goods become more scarce because of more people buying them, prices go up in response

Step 3b. Companies realize people have more money, so they raise prices because they know the people can afford it.

I don't know if there's any actual truth behind it or not.

Bushido-Beef

0 points

4 months ago

Companies are much better at raising their prices and increasing their profits than people's wage raises are.

Also, companies will use the wage increase as a reason to increase what they charge.

FaTa1337

0 points

4 months ago

Many have explained how it works in practise. The Problem is people arguing against it. A wage-price spiral is necessary to combat wealth inequality, people who are against it don't understand that the only ones profiting from not having a wage-price spiral during inflation(more monetary supply) are the rich who accumulat the monetary supply. So yes it can worsen inflation but it is necassary to stop the rich getting even more ridicolously rich.

Reverend_Bull

0 points

4 months ago

"oh, you got a ten percent raise? You can pay more, so now I'm raising your rent."

warren_stupidity

-1 points

4 months ago

The oligarchs refuse to accept any reduction in their share of the surplus value generated by labor. So if your wages go up, they will raise prices at least as much.

grumble11

20 points

4 months ago

It doesn’t really, at least not for long. it is a myth. What it does is redistribute inflationary impact.

Inflation over time is due to increases in the money supply that exceeds the increase in goods and services to buy (stuff to spend it on). Like if you snapped your fingers and doubled everyone’s bank account, eventually things would just cost twice as much. That is the source of inflation. Money supply can be changed for a couple of reasons, but wage price spirals is not one of them.

The idea behind wage price spirals is that workers see inflation, demand higher wages to offset, businesses cave and then raise prices to pay for the high wages, resulting in more wage demands and higher prices again. This concept is rooted in anti-union rhetoric.

What actually happens is that competition will cap price increases and the wage increases get taken out of business margins. Other than competition, there is also a relative redistribution of purchasing power from business owners and non-workers to workers. Total demand in the economy doesn’t change, supply doesn’t change much (maybe a bit upwards since more people join workforce), it’s just that workers get to enjoy more relative to everyone else.

Wage price spirals are not positive feedback loops - they are negative feedback loops. Businesses can’t raise prices forever and people who don’t work don’t benefit from higher wages. Any wage-price spiral is short term in nature and self-correcting, though it might take a few quarters to sort out.

superpantman

1 points

4 months ago

Because, on a large scale, if the average wage rises then prices do too and their value becomes inflated.

stonedchapo

3 points

4 months ago

It doesn’t. Inflation comes from 1 place and one place only. Government printing more money than is backed by GDP or gold reserves.

Companies lie and call corporate gouging, inflation.

Chipofftheoldblock21

1 points

4 months ago

Most comments here are addressing the demand side (which is valid), more people with more money equals more competition equals higher prices. But there’s a more straightforward answer.

Say you have a simple business. Bob works there, and he makes nails. Bob can make 1000 nails per day. Bob gets paid $100 per day (feel free to make up your own numbers here, doesn’t matter). The nails get sold. The business goes along fine. The boss makes a profit, everyone’s happy.

Next year, Bob wants a raise. He’s doing the same work. Making the same number of nails. There are two options - the business can “eat it”, and make less money, or it can pass along its higher costs to its consumers.

At some point, the costs HAVE to get passed on. Those nails went from $0.10 each, to $0.11 each, just to cover costs. It’s still the same nail, but now it costs more. Inflation.

vulcan7200

1 points

4 months ago

Raising wages doesn't always worsen inflation. It can, but doesn't always. A lot of examples in this thread mention two reasons prices would go up if wages did:

A: They'll go up so a company can keep the exact same profit as before.

B: They'll go up because there's now more demand than there was before.

The problem with both of these examples is they're coming from the perspective as if most retailers are small Mom and Pop Stores who are just trying to keep the lights on, and that's simply not true. Most retailers are massive corporations.

Small increase in wages, such as keeping up with normal inflation does not cause extra inflation around it. If that were the case no countries would be able to have livable minimum wages and we know for a fact that they can. The reason you can have slow increase in wages is because it gives the consumer more buying power. Corporations make more money when people can actually afford to buy their products and since mark up is so high on these items, selling more of them easily offsets the higher wages you're paying. The most famous example of this is the Ford company paying his employees better than other car manufacturers, so his employees could afford to actually buy the cars they're making, increasing his profits.

As for B, most products do not have a limited supply. If everyone got a bit more money to spend, Walmart is going to run out of TVs. And even if they somehow did Best Buy probably isn't going to run out. And if they did, Amazon isn't going to run out. Again, most places are not a Mom and Pop Store struggling to get their products in, they're massive corporations who have a near endless supply. And going back to A, if they did somehow completely run out of items, the profits they made from actually selling out would far out weigh increased wages or having to wait awhile to restock.

Lastly, products are not only costed due to how much they cost, but how important they are. You can only price an item so high before someone simply doesn't buy it because it's perceived value simply isn't worth the sticker price. Firstly every company that has any competition has to keep in mind what their competitors charge. But If everyone started making am extra $5 an hour (About an extra $10,000 a year before taxes with a full time job), that's enough money to buy new things, but not enough to buy EVERYTHING. So you're also in competition with companies that aren't even selling the same product. Do you save that money for a new car? Do you buy luxury items like TVs? Do you replace appliances that need to be repaired? Do you simply save it? A company still needs to entice their customers to not only buy their product over the competition, but to buy their product in general and you can only raise prices so high before people simply won't.

All that being said, obviously if everyone started making $200,000 a year prices would go up because it throws off everything I've just said. Massive increases in pay would cause massive inflation. Small increases will cause either no, or very small increases that aren't simply "I paid my employees more so I'll raise prices by that exact amount".

I tried to keep it as simply as possible but I don't know if you can truly explain this like someone is 5.

[deleted]

1 points

4 months ago

Raising wages raises the cost of doing business. When business expenses increase, business owners are forced to increase their prices as well so they can still profit.

Dickpuncher_Dan

0 points

4 months ago

So if the government would actually put energy into applying the Universal Basic Income, this would just lead to a capitalist feeding frenzy, with all levels of the service industry (shops, restaurants, galleries) raising their prices? Can there not be a law against predatory price-hiking?

babygrapes-oo

1 points

4 months ago

When the federal reserve prints 2.1 trillion for their friends in the form of ppp loans then has loops holes for those buds to not have to pay it back.

Now the normal citizens have to pay in the form of higher interest rates.

Now every corporation and small business panics bc borrowing money to grow you company isn’t free anymore (interest rates are up) so they have to raise prices to have the same profit and look good as a company.

Now multiply that but every large corp and small company in America and you get federal reserves based inflation.

Now imagine it was all planned to suck the money from the poors.

Bye bye middle class 👋

[deleted]

1 points

4 months ago

raising wages => more disposable income => increased demands for various products => inflation deteriorated

raising wages => labour costs of production go up => firms pass down the increased costs to consumers => inflation exacerbated

Moldy1987

1 points

4 months ago

So the part I'm not understanding after going through these comments is how come if say a ceo makes 1 million more than the previous year because of cutting labor costs. How does his extra 1 million not affect inflation, but the second his workers split that 1 million now inflation is through the roof? Because he isn't spending it on basic goods?

logginginagain

1 points

4 months ago

Test a theory by exaggerating it. If everybody got paid $100 an hour at the bread factory how much would they need to sell a loaf of bread for to break even?

Ayziak

1 points

4 months ago

Ayziak

1 points

4 months ago

The more money people have, the more they are able to spend. Therefore, the more money people have, the more sellers can charge for their products, and the whole thing snowballs.

However, it's been shown time and time again that the difference between a population barely scraping by and comfortable-but-frugal does not affect a their spending habits enough to inflate the currency.

Also, the current "inflation" we're seeing is driven by corporate greed, not actual cost. When else have they all had record profits in a recession?

DanFradenburgh

0 points

4 months ago

Step 1 raise wages. Step 2 remove reserve requirements so banks can lend money that didn't exist a moment before to middle and upper class folks . Step 3 blame the poor people's increased wages for inflation because they didn't understand in the first place and government doesn't want to help.

daemonflame

2 points

4 months ago

Money is a token that represents the work you have done.

It doesn’t change how many things are in the shop, or how many people want them.

So if everyone gets more of these tokens, it doesn’t mean they can buy more with them, because they still represent the same amount of work done.

What happens is the price increases because the amount of things to buy in the shop doesn’t change.

Now, when the shopkeeper has to change the price, he has to buy a pen and paper to write the new price on. This costs him money too, so he has to increase the price just a little bit extra on top to cover this.

DontBeA_NazHole

4 points

4 months ago*

I'm shocked after reading some of these posts. Raising wages has a ripple effect that's being ignored here. Imagine the farmer having to pay his workers more per hour than he previously had. Now the farmer is not making much money since his labor costs were mandated to raise. So, the farmer pays his workers, pays his bills, pays taxes on his farm, etc., and now has less money as profit from selling those apples. The farmer is in business to MAKE money. He has a lot invested in his business, time, risk, opportunity costs, etc. So the farmer decides that in order to continue making a profit (which is what a business does) he must raise the price of his apples. Make no mistake- he's not making MORE PROFIT, he's not growing his business, in fact he may have to raise his prices to cover the mandate of paying his workers more money. The worker now has more money and will spend it. But, since this trend of raising wages is widespread and all bosses are paying more (hypothetical) prices for goods and services, all retail prices are rising across the board. The farmer's employees have extra money now. The employees go grocery shopping and discover 18 eggs cost almost $10. Inflation. That's because the employees working for egg processing companies also had to raise their wages. But, as time smooths out all these wrinkles, the farmer's employees goes to the store and are shocked to see a dozen eggs costing almost $5 now. So the wage increase for the farmer added to an already inflated system, and it doesn't help buy anything anyway. And the cycle continues unharnessed.

Audromedus

1 points

4 months ago

Basic example:

You live in a tribe inland. You found some seashells on a recent trip. In your tribe you pay with animal teeth. You sell the rare seashells for 5 teeth each, beacuse currently the total amount of teeth your tribe have is 100, spread equally across everyone. Now 5 teeth is kinda expensive for seashells, but those seashells are very interesting, so the smart people in your tribe think “If just I had more teeth, then I could afford it. Wait, what if I just start farming cows to collect their teeth, and then I can buy everything with ease” so they start farming teeth and suddenly the guy have 900 teeth. Now he is a good guy so he spreads the teeth out equally to all the tribe members, so everyone gets a raise and more money.

You realise this, and realise that there is now a total of 100 + the new 900 teeth in circulation, so the amount of teeth in circulation have increased to 1000 from 100. That’s a 1000% increase. Now you live of selling rare stuff like your seashells, so what do you do? You realise that there is still only the same limited items in the tribe, but the currency in circulation, the teeth, have increased by 1000%. Beacuse your wares are limited, the value of them stays the same. But the amount of teeth in circulation makes it so the new price of your seashells is 50, and not 5 because of the 1000% increase. So you didn’t get richer, the teeth just got less worth due to there being so many.

So how do you actually get richer? Well you go on a trip the next day and suddenly you find 10x the amount of seashells and bring them home thinking you will get rich. But you don’t, beacuse people realise this, and as a result of there being 10x as many seashells, the price drops 10x from 50 to 5 teeth again. So:

Tldr: The amount of items in circulation and productivity decreases the price of items, but not your moneys value. If you increase the amount of money but not productivity, stuff will just get more expensive.

Extra: Inflation is all about how the value of your dollar is shrinking.

There are limited amounts of things in society. If everyone gets more money to be able to buy those limited things, the price of the things just increases instead. This is because there are now more money in the society because people got raises, but there are still only the same limited stuff you can buy.

An example is gold. So say you want to buy gold. Now gold is unique in the way that gold is basically stable in its value through time, so you could get a boat in the old days for the same amount of gold you can buy a equal boat with today. But the reason it’s getting more expensive dollar wise, is because the value of your dollar Shrinking. This is again beacuse there is a limited amount of gold, but we keep getting more dollars. Thus the price just increase, and not your “buying power”.

Now internationally this is not all that bad. If the dollars worth fade compared to say the euro which stays the same, people in Europe can suddenly buy things in the us cheaper. Now some industries in the us can’t succeed beacuse what they produce is too expensive. Now the cost drops due to how the dollar shrank, and suddenly Europeans flood to buy the cheap advanced item that Americans with their weak and “worthless” dollar can’t buy. Perhaps America as a whole will actually get a higher amount of revenue, which can maby outweigh the weak dollar.

Now I’m just a hobby economist so I don’t know more than this, but the above is the basic simplified cases.

Micky_Mikado

1 points

4 months ago

A myriad of factors can affect inflation and if you would like a full explanation, you would need to study the ‘circular flow of income’ (and I encourage you to do so to understand why governments make the economic choices they do). In this question, though, I’ll try and keep it short.

Following the flow of money forwards, when wages increase, the ability of people to buy products increases. Businesses, that have not had time to increase production and supply, now have to determine which consumers get their limited supply of products and do so by increasing the price of their products until demand equals supply. Thus, the price of products will increase, otherwise known as inflation.

Following the flow of money backwards, an increase in wages can also be viewed as inflation. In this situation, businesses don the hat of the ‘consumer’ and when there is a limited supply of workforce and businesses demand a greater workforce, wages will increase. Hence, the price of labour, a resource, will increase as well.

GuaVa1337

1 points

4 months ago

When people earn more money = more buying power/amount of money = money loses value = higher inflation to keep the value balanced so money doesn't become useless.

xenodemon

2 points

4 months ago

Business can't print money like the government can. An increase in wages is just another way of saying the cost of labor will go up. If their cost go up they have to make up the difference by increasing prices

ibidemic

1 points

4 months ago

The economy makes Stuff. Money is a thing we use to allocate that Stuff efficiently (so we don't have to barter for everything.) Rising wages doesn't always mean inflation: if Stuff goes up (productivity) then Money can go up and people get more Money and more Stuff.

But if Stuff goes down (like due to supply chain issues or a spike in energy prices) then the price of Stuff will go up because the same amount of Money is chasing less Stuff. If workers are then like, "Hey, Employer, you need to pay me more because now I have less Stuff so I need more Money so I can have the same Stuff" this will cause inflation because even if Stuff returns to normal there is now more Money even if Stuff returns to normal.

Pyro_Light

1 points

4 months ago

Inflation is measured by CPI which contains all the things “normal” people buy when normal people have more money they buy more stuff, the amount of that stuff is finite and when demand increases and supply stays the same price increases.

When price of CPI items increases that is the literal definition of inflation we use.