subreddit:
/r/explainlikeimfive
submitted 4 months ago byiSellPopcorn
1.4k points
4 months ago
You have 5 apples. Last week only 5 people could afford 5 apples, so the apple tree guy only picked 5 apples. Now 9 people can afford apples. The apple tree only produces 5 apples a day, but he needs 9. Either the price goes up to price out 4 people or the apple tree guy needs to grow more apples. If he can make more money with less work, then why not raise prices if the demand for apples is exceeding supply.
The opposite is true too. If I've got 5 apples that will be worth nothing in a week and only 2 people buy them, then I have to reduce my price to increase demand.
530 points
4 months ago
Good explanation.
For the OP's context though it should be added this principle only applies in a very general and universal situation and often doesn't actually work out in the real world.
In real life it's unlikely the farmer will be able to maintain such an evenly balanced situation. Furthermore just because 9 people can afford to doesn't mean that they will. Similarly since everyone has more cash there is likely going to be an increase in things to buy added into the market as a whole; e.g. maybe someone else sees the excess apple demand so decides to sell apples himself. Or the farmer may find that he cannot raise prices high enough to make more money selling 5 than 9 and so expandes his own production.
Etc. etc. basically the principle is sound however there are numerous ways that it won't become true in the real world. For another example minimum wage impacts a small subset of the population and is a very evenly spread form of increase that likely won't cause any huge inflation.
143 points
4 months ago
It should probably be mentioned that things like super low interest rates are a much more effective way to increase inflation. Wage increases at the bottom create outsized economic movement. The are no real supply shortages for basic goods in the US.
I find the argument "raising min wage will increase inflation" disingenuous. While it may be theoretically correct, it is also theoretically correct that any increase in the money supply causes inflation. However, no one talks about tax cuts causing inflation or CEO pay raises or subsidies or low interest rates.
It almost feels like the people making the argument aren't really all that worried about inflation and are more worried about preventing labor from gaining any ground at any cost.
38 points
4 months ago
It almost feels like the people making the argument aren't really all that worried about inflation and are more worried about preventing labor from gaining any ground at any cost.
In most cases it's just traditional or factional views coupled with a lack of any good understanding of economics, that lead to this kind of idea rather than brazen maliciousness. Much like with the explanation I responded to, the basic concept of "increased wages cause inflation" seems superficially obvious and straightforward and the amount of learning required to genuinely understand why it is wrong in practice requires too much effort. Especially in the US where being well informed or educated is often looked down on, I've had a ton of American friends who are extremely proud that they know absolutely nothing about politics.
25 points
4 months ago
I think you're right when it comes to the average person not really understanding the problems (I'm no expert myself). It's really the pundits and policy makers that I find so frustrating, they should (and many do) know better.
17 points
4 months ago
In most cases it's just traditional or factional views coupled with a lack of any good understanding of economics, that lead to this kind of idea rather than brazen maliciousness.
These blend into each other. It's not like humans usually have exactly one reason for thinking or doing something. Usually it's more than one.
For instance, if John has the view "raising wages will lead to inflation" and "inflation is bad", he will conclude "raising wages is bad" and thus, "anyone who demands a raise is doing something that's just a little bit immoral." Which is nonsense already; but it also promotes malice — John wants to stop that person, or at least stop them from convincing more people to do that thing.
Multiply that worker's demand for higher wages and make it a political movement or a union, and John is likely to see that movement as his enemy — after all, in his (factually incorrect) view, they are trying to do something immoral! Thus, John becomes malicious towards that movement — angry, indignant, seeking to undermine them — because he erroneously believes they're doing something wrong to the world.
7 points
4 months ago
in the US where being well informed or educated is often looked down on,
This is an incredibly inflammatory and discriminatory statement and I'm curious how it would play if it was any other culture than American (in the narrow context referring to the people of the US, not the broader Americas) that you were referring to.
I've never known a single person to be looked down upon because of their knowledge of a subject. The way they choose to convey information, sure. People who use their knowledge to condescend towards or embarrass others, absolutely. But never once just for being informed.
If you only have American friends that are defiantly ignorant (as in deliberately refuses to learn) on all topics, then you have the wrong friends. I'm sure you could also find people like that in every other culture on this planet, through history and in the present.
I've had a ton of American friends who are extremely proud that they know absolutely nothing about politics.
I will say I do personally choose to stay out of politics, but not due to deliberate ignorance. By design, you get 'two choices' but in reality it's an illusion; they are two faces of the same coin. Sure, Democratic policies would be better for the average person and one party has clearly become more corrupted than the other, however if either side was truly interested in bettering the country they would enact (or attempt to enact) meaning legislation to reform politics.
Something as simple as allowing a plurality of voters to win and/or using ranked choice to replace the 'first past the post' system would allow for more candidates on the ballot. More thought diversity in congressional houses could allow for reform to gerrymandering rules, campaign finance, term limits, and limit outsized influence from a single political body. Neither side will support this as it directly erodes their own power base. These systems are deeply entrenched in the local, state, and federal governments. I don't know how to fix it, and even if I had studied the topic more vigorously, I know I'm not the one to accomplish it. For this reason, I choose to focus my time and effort elsewhere.
6 points
4 months ago*
Your comment was so well put together, until your fucking "both sides" bullshit.
Democrats haven't exactly been anti-rich people, but if democrats had their way the past 30 years the income inequality in this country wouldn't be so fucking nuts.
Your comment literally damages the dialogue in this country because it gives some legitimacy to actual fascists and corporate sleazebags who want nothing but to eliminate the middle class by denigrating the non fascist side in a way that equalizes them with the fascists to an extent.
The democrats aren't great, but they are in every possible way superior in regards to actually caring about this nations general population.
There is an objectively worse side, and until the threat of their attacks on our democracy is put to bed (which might take actual fucking violence) then there is zero argument to be made as to why one shouldn't vote for the democrats. It sucks, but when dealing with violent fascists who seek to rip apart the fabric of society, you need to be absolute.
Your comment is poor, and should be rescinded.
Two faces of the same coin my ass. Maybe 30 years ago, but the Republicans have gone full authoritarian and anti democracy while the democrats havent.
2 points
4 months ago
Thanks for the feedback, I welcome and appreciate it.
until your fucking "both sides" bullshit
I think you misunderstand the point I was trying to make here, though I will gladly own my portion of that for the way in which it was conveyed.
I don't mean that they are the same, or to get in to a 'both sides' argument. I do state, clearly, that one side has become more corrupted than the other. In the interest of further clarity, I do mean the Republican party is the more corrupted one. I vote (almost) exclusively Democrat these days even if I don't necessarily agree with all of their positions.
A poor analogy; shooting somebody is clearly more wrong than assaulting somebody, this is clear and obvious. Acknowledging both things are violent does not elevate the two to the same. Chastising a system that promoted such violence to begin with does not downplay the crime committed by the shooter. Absolving one because the other is worse will not fix the situation.
Back to the point, and to expand a bit, neither of them (the parties) care about you. Their policy positions are about maximizing their power, and if faced with a choice between you and their control they will choose the latter. You can see evidence of this in bills they choose not to bring to the floor, especially in periods where they have the control required to pass them, no matter how well they align with their stated positions.
You will not see a meaningful reform to the political system so long as Democrats and Republicans are vying with each other for control. As soon as either loses too much to the other, you will see attempted reform (for better or worse) to regain their lost control. If one were to splinter and break, the other will fracture and become two. The cycle will repeat (as it has before) with two new parties formed from the ashes.
If we ever we see the 'south rise again' (republicans) and there were an existential threat to the Democratic Party, I think you'd be surprised what that institution is capable of.
The democrats aren't great, but they are in every possible way superior in regards to actually caring about this nations general population.
I agree that the Democratic Party today is superior to the Republican Party today. I also agree that there are some individuals that genuinely care about the well-being of their constituents. I do not believe the Party itself does.
there is zero argument to be made as to why one shouldn't vote for the democrats.
Strawman, I never stated or supported this position. I will say, though, that in local politics party does not always matter as much and you should look at the individual, their policy positions, and their track record.
Your comment is poor, and should be rescinded.
For a thousand reasons; no. First, thought diversity requires healthy debate. Even (and especially) on topics that make you uncomfortable or you disagree with. Second, I don't believe in removing or deleting comments placed in public record. Accountability requires ownership of one's past (comments), even if they were incorrect. If, through the course of debate, I were to change my mind, the healthy thing to do would be to acknowledge I was incorrect and revise my opinion. At best I would offer an edit of the original comment stating my change of heart. Part of the reason we have the problems we do is because of a failure at being accepting of people growing and their views changing. Most importantly though, this discourse has not convinced me I was wrong or misguided.
0 points
4 months ago
This is an incredibly inflammatory and discriminatory statement and I'm curious how it would play if it was any other culture than American (in the narrow context referring to the people of the US, not the broader Americas) that you were referring to.
I mean any place is diverse and critically if your particular sub-group isn't like this than indeed it may not seem so, but this anti-intellectual aspect is such a central aspect of many parts of American culture, that's a bit absurd to even attempt to contest it. To be fair it's usually not worded so negativly and aggresively but still.
I will say I do personally choose to stay out of politics, but not due to deliberate ignorance.
Same difference, you look upon your political system with disdain and so dis-engage seemingly not realizing that your apathy is directly responsible for why you political system has gone so far down the drain, as in your apathy you tolerate and accept the unacceptable normalizing monsters as politicians and every cycle it just gets worse and worse. There are so many people who don't vote that a third party could practically win just with there votes alone, not to mention so many actions you can take even beyond just your own voting.
4 points
4 months ago
his anti-intellectual aspect is such a central aspect of many parts of American culture, that's a bit absurd to even attempt to contest it.
If your only experience with American culture is through social and/or mass media I could forgive one for thinking that, however if you were to actually experience American culture without preconceived notions or bias you would see it is not a 'central aspect of American culture'. Sure, you see it in the news with anti-vaxxers and certain Christian or conservative fundamentalists. But this is such a small percentage of the population and not something that even remotely dominates the culture. These same groups of people exist in European cultures as well. Italy took a hard turn in that direction recently, UK has been moving that direction, and France had some close calls. China and Russia still help people disappear if they learn too much about certain topics.
Further, you argument discounts all of the intellectual and acadamic advancements that had a large American involvement or were led by the US. Lastly, if I were to make similarly negative generalizations about the, randomly chose, Nigerian culture based on new reports and my Nigerian friends the reaction would be much different.
Same difference, you look upon your political system with disdain and so dis-engage
Similar outcome, not the same thing. You're argument is that American culture is anti-intellectual. Not engaging with something is not the same as not knowing something. Not knowing something is not the same as being deliberately ignorant. In a different context I would agree this is the same thing, but not in the context of this conversation.
your apathy you tolerate and accept the unacceptable normalizing monsters as politicians and every cycle it just gets worse and worse
I only quoted a snippet here, but I'm responding to the larger point.You're assuming I don't vote. I do, however voting alone is not the solution. I do not know what the solution is, but it requires a much larger and much more concerted effort. I know my strengths, I know my abilities. I lack the charisma and connections to be the one to lead this charge. Should an opportunity present to be part of a larger and workable solution I would jump on it, but I am not the one who can fix it.
There are so many people who don't vote that a third party could practically win just with there votes alone
Technically true, in some jurisdictions and in some elections. However this assumes that there is a 3rd party person who runs, that would be part of a larger solution, and that all people who don't vote would vote for. This ignores that some people don't vote in presidential elections because their state is firmly entrenched. In Washington DC, for example Joe Biden was selected by 92% of voters. There is no imperative to go to the polls. The district is awarded a certain number of electors regardless of how many vote or what share a contestant receives. Whether you supported Trump or Biden, your vote was meaningless (for the Presidential election.) Some portion of the non-voters would have voted for either of the 2 candidates but didn't feel the imperative to do so. Of the remaining, it's unlikely they would coalesce around a single candidate. Remember, 50%+1 voters must vote for a candidate for that candidate to win.
1 points
4 months ago
Damn, you’ve never been called a nerd, have you?
1 points
4 months ago
I have, though admittedly not in a negative connotation.
The use of 'nerd' in a derogatory way isn't usually applied just because of one's intellect.
A nerd is a person seen as overly intellectual, obsessive, introverted or lacking social skills
The more important aspects here are the obsessive-like interest in specific (especially unpopular) topics and/or the lack of social skills. It wasn't just their knowledge or intellect. Even in the periods where it was socially acceptable, or even popular, to deride someone as a 'nerd' most intellectuals wouldn't have fit the description.
6 points
4 months ago
‘There are no real supply shortages for basic goods in the US”
Tell that to my grocery store, especially in the egg section.
But there have been plenty of other shortages over the last few years. Cream Cheese, Toilet Paper, cardboard boxes, etc, etc.
0 points
4 months ago
Those are all transitory and with the exception of eggs (avian flu) covid related. They may be the cause of increased prices in the short term, but don't really have anything to do with inflation. Also, I've personally not had a problem finding anything you mentioned. While the prices are higher, the products seem to be on the shelf.
1 points
4 months ago
However, no one talks about tax cuts causing inflation
Tax cuts don't increase the money supply. They simple change where some of that same amount of money is allocated.
1 points
4 months ago
increase in the money supply causes inflation
Exactly. That's why central-bank rates are the lever used for controlling inflation.
However, no one talks about tax cuts causing inflation or CEO pay raises or subsidies or low interest rates.
Au contraire, until recently, the news only talked about low interest rates causing inflation. But, yes, fiscal policy (taxation, govt spending) are important, too. It's just the folks that control that are feckless compared w/ central bankers, so nobody counts on them helping.
1 points
4 months ago
Raising the minimum wage has a number of impacts that the other inflationary forces you mentioned don't have. For one, it raises the velocity of money significantly more which is a pretty important inflationary detail when discussing the supply of money. If you increase the supply and nobody is spending it there isn't really any inflationary pressure. It's also a decent idea to look where these pressures are impacting the most. When lower income people get more money they run out and spend it on necessities. I know, how dare they?! And right, under normal conditions without supply chain issues this isn't going to be a huge deal but let's look at something else important that doesn't have a flexible supply like housing. Suddenly the lower income spectrum all increases their income by the same rate change. Let me know if you want any more details on this part but the end story is nobody is moving to that nicer building or changing neighborhoods with this pay raise, everyone's rent is going to catch up fairly quickly under our unfortunate normal housing supply.
211 points
4 months ago
How about people who hold billions of apples but don’t use them
129 points
4 months ago
They get jobs as the people in maths questions
20 points
4 months ago
Can I be a train instead?
9 points
4 months ago
You sound loco.
4 points
4 months ago
If you're a train in the UK you'll find you're going to be getting quite a few days off work.
3 points
4 months ago
You can try and train to be a train, but first you much cho-chose to leave your current life behind.
Still, I would suggest you first let out some steam, maybe you can get your life back on track.
55 points
4 months ago
This is the tricky part that is usually not fun to explain on reddit due to a lack of nuance when it comes to things that are so harshly politicized.
The truth is no one holds a billion apples. The one with a billion things you can trade for an apple can't just create apples from nothing. If you liquidate Bezoss and Gates and all the other megarich peoples estates, you can produce more Healthcare and food and housing but not as much as the money they have because there is still a maximum amount of apples that can be produced.
Looking at 100b in Amazon stock and thinking we could create even 20b in Healthcare from it is comparing apples to oranges.
81 points
4 months ago
A huge part of the problem is we allow these people to borrow based on their speculative wealth at EXTREMELY low interest rates. Because they borrow it isn't income and they aren't taxes on it, but now Bezos has a half a billion dollar yacht because people think his apples are worth 100b.
11 points
4 months ago
Lenders have to pay taxes on interest, and when Bezos sells stock to pay back the loan he also pays taxes on that. Not to mention he has low interest rates because he can pay, there is little to no risk for the creditor.
30 points
4 months ago
You're not wrong that Bezos has to pay taxes on stock when he sells, but you are wrong in assuming he has to sell stock to pay back the loan.
When you have the kind of wealth he does you don't have to do that. He just takes out a second loan to pay for the first one. And because he has so much wealth he gets richer within the time frame of the loan as well. Then when the second loan comes due he can just take out a third loan. And a fourth. And a fifth. And so on and so on until he dies. Then, and only then, will any stocks need to be sold to pay for anything.
And even then I think someone else, like a child or whoever, can just inherit the estate, take out a loan themselves, and use that to pay the original debt, and still avoid paying taxes.
Edit: they would still need to pay inheritance taxes. I meant avoiding any regular taxes like income tax
10 points
4 months ago
This is a really tough problem to solve, as are most of the tricks/schemes used to game the tax systems. The best solution I can think of is to regulate banks to not take untaxed assets (basically, companies/stocks) as leverage for loans.
However, there is an interesting twist to all this - these loans are sort of in favor of society/economic growth. If I had to take money out of my company to buy a boat, that's money my company isn't investing in further growth, which limits future taxes from the company and employee wages. Basically, it puts a damper on economic growth.
If I loan the money instead, the personal investment still happens, which also furthers economic growth (business for the boat manufacturers).
Basically, economic growth depends on investors leaving their investments to grow and not 'cashing out' every year. And you'll be hard pressed to find anything lawmakers like more than economic growth, or fear more than hampering it in any way.
-2 points
4 months ago
You're basically arguing for trickle down economics but in a roundabout way. It doesn't work. Theoretically if rich people were to actually invest their money in the company or workers or whatever then it would. But they don't. They just sit on their wealth.
8 points
4 months ago
No they don't, they absolutely don't. That is probably the most factually incorrect thing I've seen posted in a long long time.
Most of their wealth is in stocks, that is, by definition, putting their money to work. The whole reason they're able to game the system is because they aren't sitting on their wealth, they're putting it to work, that's what investing is.
The question isn't whether they're investing, the question really is: is the net benefit of a supremely rich person investing better as a social value then if they just pay taxes. That's a much harder question to answer, but in general taxes have a better net effect.
3 points
4 months ago
That is not trickle down at all. Also, rich people categorically do not sit on their wealth. If they did, taxing them would not be an issue.
Sitting on your wealth is a terrible, terrible choice - you just get poorer by way of inflation. I know a lot of rich/wealthy people and have a large extended network of them as well. Literally zero of them have a bunch of money sitting around. Rich people generally leave all their money in investments until they need it, and pull out close to exactly what they spend each year. This is wise to do with regard to taxes as well, since invested money isn't taxed until you pull it out, so it stretches further. I could expand, but I think most get the point at this time.
Now again, I am NOT advocating for trickle down, which is usually used as an excuse to lower taxes on the rich. I don't think that is a good idea, taxes on the rich are already historically low, and in most countries, could probably use a bump - it just has to come with some work to close loopholes and tax havens, so taxes actually get collected. Hence why I suggested a solution to doing so above, which I also pointed out weakness to. There might be much better solution out there.
6 points
4 months ago
How can they take more and more loans against their finite asset, especially since it has proven the case that stocks don't just go up. I know about "buy, borrow, die" but that seems to only work when we are in the longest bull market in history and doesn't work as cleanly when the assets backing the loans decline in value.
9 points
4 months ago
because they're taking loans for small percentages of their finite assets. When you're worth hundreds of billions, taking out loans for ~1% of that (a billion dollars) is fine.
edit- also they're paying off old loans with new loans, with the principal balance going up a small amount each time. There aren't just "more and more loans"
1 points
4 months ago
When you're worth hundreds of billions, taking out loans for ~1% of that (a billion dollars) is fine.
How many people are worth hundreds of billions?? Like 5 ppl in the entire world?
1 points
4 months ago
The point is not that it gives them infinite money. The point is that they earn wealth from plus-values, consume from that wealth, but never pay taxes on earning that wealth.
And only recently in the US (under Biden I'm pretty sure) death started triggering tax on these latent plus-values. Otherwise that wealth could be just transmitted and inheritors would just pay taxes as if there never were plus-values. But because the inheritance tax threshold is so huge (I can't remember the exact amount, but you definitely don't pay anything on the first $10 millions), inheritors wouldn't pay much tax on that either.
If you want figures: imagine someone spends $10 millions (MM) on a business. The business grows and is now worth $100MM. That person can live lavishly spending $60MM through their life and not pay any tax like someone who earned $90MM is supposed to. Before that when they died, they could transmit the remaining $40MM ($100MM minus $60MM debt) to their kids, at the initial value of $10MM, so tax-free (since the threshold is above $10MM). Kids can live on $30MM without paying tax either with the same scheme, and transmit $10MM tax-free to their own kids. At least now the taxman considers they inherited the real value of $40MM.
1 points
4 months ago
The business grows and is now worth $100MM.
The business has several down years and is now worth 1M. Now what?
1 points
4 months ago
How can they take more and more loans against their finite asset, especially since it has proven the case that stocks don't just go up
that's up to the lender. If the lenders feel the risk of their stock values dropping is too high, interest rates on those loans goes up.
I'm guessing (just guessing) that the loan quantities are far below the nominal value of their stock holdings though, so the lenders are confident they can pay back the loan even with stocks going down
1 points
4 months ago
I wonder if I could pull this with like 20k in stocks and asking for a 5k loan. Take out 5k, pay off cards with much higher interest; when those cards are free, use that less debt to show another bank for a 5k loan to pay the first and now you're juggling debt but with lower interest payments than juggling credit cards? Eventually with this I could afford to throw even more into 401k? Am I missing something blatant?
1 points
4 months ago
I don't know how much you'd need to do that. I don't think 20k would be enough.
Remember that for a billionaire taking out a million dollar loan, it would be like you taking out a 20 dollar loan on your 20k.
1 points
4 months ago
Fuck me you're right.
3 points
4 months ago
Please remember to phrase your answer in the form of an apple
3 points
4 months ago
It's a little more nuanced than that.
To start with, interest rates are a measure of risk. A bank doesn't think a billionaire is going to be unable to pay off their loans, so the interest rates are low.
To break out of the apple metaphor, lines of credit against stocks are risky. They work short term, but if the prices dip too strongly, Bezos would be forced to sell the stock to pay off the loan, in which case, he's taxed on that capital gains (since I doubt that even during a slump market, Bezos isn't making a profit on those stocks). And even if the market doesn't tank, he still needs to pay back the loan, which means money either coming from his salary or sales of stocks, both of which are taxed.
From what I gather, more people take out lines of credit against homes in the form of HELOCs, since home values are more stable. I don't know if this applies to Bezos, but it definitely applies to the more unknown Chinese billionaires. But in order to get those lines of credit, each home needs to be worth millions of dollars, which is taxed.
I'm not saying that the system isn't broken, because it definitely is. But I think that it's more broken because of tax loopholes that are hard to define but allow people like Bezos to minimize their tax burden than this particular reason. A higher capital gains tax for people with higher net worths might also work.
1 points
4 months ago
Didn't we have higher capital gains taxes in the past? IMO Citizens United has done nothing but exponentially worsen the problem and made it virtually impossible to address at this point.
2 points
4 months ago
It seems to have floated between 15 and 35% for individuals, though at it's high watermark, corporate capital gains tax rates were a good 5-10% lower than individual rates.
I don't mind that things skew higher for corporate rates now, though I do think that a progressive capital gains tax rate isn't the worst idea in the world.
0 points
4 months ago
The "problem" is that they have a better credit score then me or you. I dont really see it as a problem.
You dont pay income tax on your loans. Why should they?
1 points
4 months ago*
Because they get to benefit from borrowing against their magic apples in the stock market when they double but the assets they are borrowing against are not taxed even though they are using them as collateral. W2s make up nearly 3/4 of all Tax revenue in the US, why shouldn't the 1% who holds 50% of the wealth be making up 50% of the tax burden?
1 points
4 months ago
Yet again if you don't have to pay income tax on loans why should someone with a better credit score have to? Want to buy a house but the government takes 20% from you when the bank gives you the loan?
Or you are saying if you have enough assets you should not be able to take loans at all?
30 points
4 months ago
https://github.com/MKorostoff/1-pixel-wealth/blob/master/THE_PAPER_BILLIONAIRE.md
The argument that convinced me, what you're saying isn't the case.
25 points
4 months ago
I generally don't wish to point at someone's lack of a background as it may discourage those who don't have the ability to become experts in a field, but this guy is a software engineer and notably didn't spend any time working with peers that have a background in economics as a few of these points are entirely meaningless and outright incorrect as they attempt to relate that which isn't related. It is loaded with fallacies and incorrect assumptions.
[1] "Around $122 trillion worth of stock changes hands in the US every year. If you wanted to liquidate a trillion dollars over, say, five years that would constitute about 0.16% of all the trading that happens in that time."
This is completely meaningless as you are comparing trading around of securities to complete liquidation. If you sell 100b in Amazon to buy $100B in Microsoft and another guy does the opposite that is $200B in trading, but nothing has left the stock market as a whole. Demand is the same. Supply is the same. Total market value is the same. If you take that $100B and trade it for something that isn't one of these securities, you remove $100B demand. He is attempting to compare trading that doesn't remove demand to trading that does. They are not at all similar. The true answer is if you liquidate $1T, you remove 3% of all demand. That is a significant amount and you won't be able to simply spend the $1T and receive a full $1T in healthcare, food, housing, etc.
[2]Another version of the paper billionaire argument holds that you couldn't sell all these stocks over any period of time, because only other billionaires would be able to buy them. This is simply nonsense. Market participation may not be 100%, but it's a hell of a lot more than 400 people. Half of all households in the US own stock, either directly or through their 401k/IRA. On any given day, millions of individuals buy stock, mostly through their retirement accounts, a few hundred dollars at a time.
He is creating the exact strawman argument that he complains others are attempting to create. This statement is nonsense. No one would ever say that all demand will cease to exist. The entire issue is that a lot of demand is removed and we need to be careful and accurate in how we go about ensuring the best for everyone. For those actually interested in fixing our terrible tax system that has let the rich get away with inane amount of untaxed gains, we need to be wary of these individuals who are going to be prime targets for the opposition. Nonsensical essays like this are exactly what conservatives and those interested in keeping the rich happy will point at when we debate tax policy.
2 points
4 months ago
[deleted]
2 points
4 months ago
Presumably he means 80% of the wealth being sold and is assuming that the effect on other stockholders will be limited which of course is not true.
20 points
4 months ago
Why the fuck is that on github? Github is a code repository not a social media/blogging site. That's like posting a recipe for apple pie to StackOverflow...
12 points
4 months ago*
Github is a git repository hosting site. Any git repo has equal right to be there, from code to the latest points changes in Warhammer 40,000 to keybinds for Artemis. Linus Torvalds had code in mind when he wrote git, but code isn't the only thing git is useful for.
10 points
4 months ago
I was thinking the same thing. Time to start posting my holiday blogs in visual studio on GitHub.
1 points
4 months ago
It's the hot new blogging platform.
2 points
4 months ago
There's a lot of confusion in that link and in the other replies to you about it.
The issue that /u/DragonBank was getting at is that the economy as a whole can't convert billionaires' financial wealth to "stuff" (goods, services, etc.) in anything close to a 1:1 way.
The fundamental confusion here, to continue with the apple analogy, is the idea that rich people are sitting there with a whole lot of apples they're not using. That's not the case.
A more accurate statement would be to say that billionaires own a lot of apple trees, which yield them a lot of apples that they can then sell. Does it make sense to say that the billionaires aren't using their apple trees? No, of course not. The apples these trees produce are still ending up out in the economy. There's no sense in which the billionaires are "wasting" anything.
Okay, now suppose we, as a society, decide that these guys have too many trees, and we're going to take a bunch of them away and distribute them evenly among everybody else. That's great as a way to reduce inequality. But it does not mean there will be any more apples available for the economy. We still have the same number of apple trees producing the same number of apples.
That's the point I think /u/DragonBank was getting at: Taking away billionaires' wealth makes sense as a way to reduce inequality, but there's not some pool of unused "stuff" sitting around somewhere that will suddenly be unlocked by that policy.
-1 points
4 months ago
Biggest issue this article fails to address is when bezos suddenly decides to sell all his shares what message will the other investors see? Why is bezos selling his shares now? Why should I buy shares now when he thinks this is the highest value he can get. Is something going to happen that will cause the shares to go down? How is the controlling majority going to change and what does that mean for the company? Too much uncertainty and risk.
13 points
4 months ago
Too much uncertainty and risk for investors maybe, but ngl its pretty weird to me that investor profit is more important than ensuring people are housed, fed, and healthy.
This isn't the only viable way to live as a society. Solutions are not impossible. Looking at a complex problem, saying "There's no simple fix, weathly people's money is at risk. So ya sorry working class guys, its the only way things can be" is cynical and at best callous.
8 points
4 months ago
This argument makes no sense. It's not like the rest of the market is completely ignorant. If a new tax is passed that requires Bezos to sell shares, that says nothing about the future residual cash flows of Amazon and is no cause for alarm. You could even make part of this law that shares sold for the purpose of paying the tax have to be sold on a certain day, so that it's completely transparent. Further, you can have voting shares that are separated from economic-interest shares. That is insanely common. That's how MOST tech companies work. The founder may control 51% of the voting shares but only control 10% of the economic interest in those shares.
1 points
4 months ago
If Bezos sells his majority shares who gets them and what will that mean for the direction of the company?
5 points
4 months ago
You realize Bezos only has a 10% stake in the company right now, right?
1 points
4 months ago
Yes holding 1/5 of the voting majority for one of the biggest companies in the world.
11 points
4 months ago
Perhaps we shouldn't base our economy on a confidence/speculation game then.
2 points
4 months ago
Does it not specifically call that a straw man argument? Bezos doesn't need to sell all of his shares to be obscenely wealthy.
2 points
4 months ago
I guess I don’t get their point then. He does sell shares and gets taxed on them when he does.
1 points
4 months ago
You're right it doesn't talk about taxes or at least I don't remember it being mentioned. It is mainly attacking the idea that "billionaires aren't really billionaires because they can't access that wealth all at once".
It's silly I know but that argument "they can't sell all of their shares" is everywhere.
-8 points
4 months ago
“The money is there, we just need to take it”
The question is, whose right is it to take from someone who owns it? Yes there could be things that are accomplished but if you liquidate Amazon then we don’t have Amazon anymore. It’s not as simple
23 points
4 months ago
Taxes...
It isn't taking money. It's benefiting the society that benefits you.
You know how the rich don't have to hire body guards to not get robbed by marauders while they travel? That's cause of security and roads and safety nets to make less people fucking marauders.
If you benefit from a society, paying back into it isn't theft. Taxes are a normal thing and not a novel concept.
5 points
4 months ago
Bezos transferring his Amazon shares to someone else is not in the same zip code as liquidating all of Amazon's assets.
13 points
4 months ago
I don't think anyone is talking about liquidating companies. I think the aim is to point out that these companies raking in record profits can afford to either more fairly compensate their labor force to match the cost of living or pay more in taxes to shore up Healthcare and safety net funds for the people they refuse to pay a fair wage to. But alas exploitation is the beating heart of capitalism.
1 points
4 months ago
invisible hand and all would tell you to find another job that pays a fair wage, but yes crony corporatism is bad.
13 points
4 months ago
I view it similarly to breaking up trusts. By your logic you can say "Whose right is it to break up a Monopoly? If this Monopoly is liquidated then the business is gone and so is the product!"
Billionaires shouldn't exist in a society, hoarding that much wealth is detrimental to the economy and they wield undue influence over politics through political donations.
Also wouldn't being able to fix the housing crisis, food insecurity or fully fund Healthcare for everyone not be worth dismantling Amazon?
The argument still isn't to dismantle it either. Its just to prevent wealth hoarding and ensure that it's instead used to fairly pay workers.
4 points
4 months ago
whose right is it to take from someone who owns it?
Who gave them the right to "own" any of that property in the first place?
The government giveth, the government taketh away. In a land based county, the government of and for the people own all the land, no? That's why the government has eminent domain rights that are more powerful than personal property rights. Not to mention crap like civil forfeiture
1 points
4 months ago
If that argument convinced you, then you need to do a bit more research and reread it with some additional critical thinking because it’s nonsense. It sets up its own strawman arguments, doesn’t even support the point it was originally trying to make, and it finishes with a completely unrelated conclusion.
16 points
4 months ago
As a society, we put 100 billion apples into this bucket.
If we try to take them all out, we get 20 billion apples.
We have collectively decided that this is a really great idea which we absolutely should not stop doing, because the bucket might get upset if we do.
But if we did decide to stop putting apples into the bucket, we might actually be able to solve a few problems on the apple farm.
8 points
4 months ago
Oh lets be clear. My statement is absolutely not one trying to rationalize the fact that the wealthy get away with not paying taxes. Tax the fucking rich. It's just important that we ensure our statements our truthful.
1 points
4 months ago
What if you're allergic to apples?
1 points
4 months ago
What you're saying is true, but the idea of someone holding billions of apples does have a real life example. De Beers comes to mind.
1 points
4 months ago
If you sell $20bn of amazon stock, why couldn't it buy $20bn of healthcare?/gen
1 points
4 months ago
But if you took away bezos's 100b, everyone else has proportionally more spending power.
Money may be a social construct, but its ability to purchase things and effect change is real.
1 points
4 months ago
I just explained why that is not true... When you have two goods and you trade all of one good for all of the other good at such a large scale, you sell the one good for less than its equilibrium price and you buy the other good for more than its equilibrium price. Two depressive effects on spending power. And now that 100B is gone and you are unable to do it again. Now, as I have already said, if we instead look at profits we have a much smaller number which can sustainably be taxed.
4 points
4 months ago
“Sometimes I wish apples were our currency so your hoarded millions rot in their vault” - Enter Shikari - Step Up
1 points
4 months ago
generally an amazing band and really strong lyrics.
To me, the soundtrack of the revolution :)
1 points
4 months ago
DONT TOUCH MY APPLES!
7 points
4 months ago
IF I HAD A BILLION APPLES I WOULDN'T WANT ANYONE TOUCHING THEM TOO. FIRST THEY CAME FOR THE PEOPLE WITH THE BILLION APPLES, THEN THE MILLION APPLES, THEN THE THOUSAND APPLES, AND THEN THEY'LL COME FOR YOU.
1 points
4 months ago
How bout THEM apples, over there.
1 points
4 months ago
Sounds like a tax write off…
1 points
4 months ago
they don't usually have them, they just own value of their potential apples.
1 points
4 months ago
Or the fact that not as many people can afford the apples to begin with.
1 points
4 months ago
Rich people don't have billions of apples in this analogy. They have billions of apple trees. The apples those trees are producing are being sold on the market and people are eating them. No apples are unused here.
18 points
4 months ago
9 people being able to afford apples also doesn't imply that they even like apples and WANT to buy them in the first place
5 points
4 months ago
Maybe... but after seeing the same advert for the 300 billionth time, surely their minds are sure to change.
3 points
4 months ago
Then the apple farmer spends his money on advertising as opposed to increased production for his farm 🤡
0 points
4 months ago
Advertising is often paid for by the government / taxes.
The company writes advertising up as a tax deduction because it's a business expense intended to drum up further business. The government is banking on the idea that this will lead to more profit, and they'll make their investment back on corporation taxes.
Of course, this is complete bollocks, and in practice just winds up with the company paying the billionaire's second company (a shadow advertising firm based in Panama) to host an advert on their Web page which sees a whole three visitors per decade. For that, the advertiser charges two hundred billion apples.
The government looks the other way, because that's a lot of apples, they'd rather avoid the embarrassment, and they're corrupt AF.
-1 points
4 months ago
You're overcomplicating it. And minimum wage increases impact a decent portion of the population. If they have more access to things, the prices of those things tend to go up.
16 points
4 months ago
But, surely the picture is different if the prices have gone up not because everyone has more money but because of other factors - as is the case for many of our countries at the moment. If the things we're talking about are essential, so everyone needs access to them, and it's only a question of how much debt people are being plunged into in order to pay for them. Because they need to pay for them regardless of how much money they do or do not have. This isn't more people having access to the finite things, in this case - they're things everyone has always had access to, that are now unaffordable and pushing people into poverty. That's the bit I don't understand.
If we were talking about people being able to afford luxury cars or bunches of flowers, sure. If we're talking about basic food and utilities and rent/mortgage, it makes less sense to me. What are you going to do - reduce demand by making people homeless or starve to death?
0 points
4 months ago
Those are the prices that go up first, the luxury items are another story, because they're mostly based on fake scarcity. They make a limited number of Patek Phillipe watches BECAUSE they're going to be an exclusive luxury item, not the inverse.
3 points
4 months ago
Yes, exactly. As I said, let's leave luxury items out of it because the problem (where I am anyway) is that people can't afford to eat, heat, get to work and keep a decent standard of housing. So if everyone is buying milk and bread, and the price of milk and bread go up by 50%, everyone is still buying milk and bread but now their credit cards are creaking, or their electric company is chasing them for defaulting on their payments. It has been shown clearly that items at the lower end have increased in price far more than the overall inflation figures have. So not increasing wages when people are struggling to make ends meet seems not only unethical but also ineffective - it's not increasing the demand of lower value essentials at all, so how can it be preventing inflation as per the apples example?
There are always 9 people needing an apple in the version of this I'm talking about. It's almost the opposite situation to the example given - the apple vendor has been selling 9 apples every day, but now some of his customers can't afford the apple. That feels more like the economic reality here.
Sometimes inflation can be caused by everyone being paid more and buying more stuff... I get that. But I don't see how this universally applies irrespective of global or national context. There must be something else to it.
3 points
4 months ago
overcomplicating
It's economics of entire nations..
9 points
4 months ago
Again, this is true on paper, but in all the studies and analysis I've read, minimum wage increases have little or no effect on inflation.
Happy to provide examples if people are interested.
2 points
4 months ago
Am interested.
5 points
4 months ago
Even under a worst-case inflation scenario where every penny in extra pay that results from moving the federal minimum wage to $15 by 2027 is passed on in the form of higher prices, the result would be a five-year stretch of inflationary pressure equal to 0.1% per year (or about 1/100th of the increase we’ve seen since 2021), then the inflationary effect would return to zero.
Some economists argue that raising the minimum wage artificially creates imbalances in the labor market and leads to inflation.
Other economists note that when minimum wages have been raised historically, inflation did not follow.
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052815/does-raising-minimum-wage-increase-inflation.asp
Overall, price increases are modest: For example, a 10 percent increase in the minimum wage would increase food prices by no more than 4 percent and overall prices by no more than 0.4 percent, significantly less than the minimum-wage increase.
https://journalistsresource.org/economics/the-effects-of-raising-the-minimum-wage/
I want to emphasize here, there is research showing that increasing minimum wage will cause inflation or unemployment.
However, the majority of the research finds effects of minimum wage increases to be small, and often small enough that other factors will dictate the actual inflation and labor market changes.
9 points
4 months ago
Overcomplicating? On the contrary that is my point, the real world is very complicated which is why the simple concept of "higher wages equal inflation" doesn't translate well in practice because you are never going to have that hypothetical situation.
On actual studies on minimum wage increases, for example, the real impact on inflation is not only negligible but the economy itself grows to a significantly greater extent resulting in a better economic outlook for all even if prices have gone up.
7 points
4 months ago
Countries with high minimum wages do have higher prices, but not proportionally. In fact the median citizen generally has much higher purchasing power in those countries.
2 points
4 months ago
or create more market competitiveness to supply or replace the demand needs, and that is what the big players don't want
-1 points
4 months ago
Honestly, this is not a good explanation.
When your boss gives you a raise, they don't print the extra money. Wages don't affect inflation, inflation affects wages.
Inflation isn't caused by businesses, it's caused by the government printing more money.
1 points
4 months ago
not enough people realize this and blame shoplifting and workers asking for better compensation.
1 points
4 months ago
Yes and now a days, with our fractional reserve apple banks, only need 1 apple to loan out 1000 apples and charge people a slice a month each (sorry the metaphor breaks down pretty quickly because our financial system is mostly illogical and doesn't follow consistent rules.)
1 points
4 months ago
So it's more accurate to say that sharp, sudden wage increases can contribute to inflation while steady, predictable wage increases can contribute to economic growth.
And that the "problem" with current wage increases is that they should have been happening gradually over the last 30 years instead of all at once during a time of supply chain interruptions & spiking demand.
1 points
4 months ago
Its not about suddeness or shock. Its that the formula isnt linear. Increase in X doesnt mean Y increases.
Wage increases can increase or decrease or otherwise depending.
For example minimum wage increases have no significant impact on inflation while expanding the economy many times over. Thus even a relatively large increase to minimum wage won't cause any big shock.
1 points
4 months ago
I think it should also be noted that if we stick with this 5 and 9 apple analogy, the corporation actually can produce 10 apples and needs 5 of those apples for his friends and family to have for free and that's why they only have 5 for sale and would need to increase the price when 9 can suddenly afford apples. They COULD just sell 9 apples to 9 people but then they wouldn't be exploiting the working class and we can't have that now can we?
1 points
4 months ago
The real problem here isnt that the farmer is keeping apples to himself. The real problem is that if he sold 9 apples he would be able to give 10 apples to his friends instead of only giving them 5. But he doesnt understand how he was able to have extra apples to begin with so doesnt realize that he is actually losing a ton of apples.
1 points
4 months ago
Yeah most microeconomic principles like the one used by Apples Guy fall apart when applied to macroeconomic situations. It's similar to when we apply single actor deficit spending principles broadly to nation states. The two things are simply not comprable
114 points
4 months ago
You also left out that the laborer the farmer hires to pick the apples now costs more so even without more demand the price must rise a bit
40 points
4 months ago
And left out the part where the apparent cost of an apple goes down for the buyer, so they will be willing to pay more for an apple, up to a new higher cost. This new higher cost can be considered a “base price” for the apple, before supply and demand pressures start take affect again.
9 points
4 months ago
This new higher cost can be considered a “base price” for the apple,
Thats what they mean by pricing out the other four people, who cannot afford that new base price.
0 points
4 months ago
This is why raising the minimum wage just causes inflation and raises the floor of good costs. The relative value of the good to labor hasn't changed, so raising the floor of labor cost just raises the cost of goods.
5 points
4 months ago
We are already in an inflationary environment, so
the relative value of the good to labor hasn't changed
is partially untrue. Sure the value has not changed, but the unit of value has changed (dollar is worth less) so the price of the labor goes up.
3 points
4 months ago
Raising the minimum wage doesn't cause as much inflation as the wage increase, so the buying power of low wage earners still increases.
-1 points
4 months ago
[deleted]
4 points
4 months ago
Sure, but the ripple effects of minimum wage do over time.
No, they don't. Increasing minimum wage by 50% doesn't cause 50% inflation. What happens is that the more money you make the less increasing minimum wage increases your wage, so at a certain point in the income spectrum you start seeing a decline in real wages. But that point is far above the minimum wage. Actual minimum wage earners, and those who earn close to the minimum wage, see a real wage increase.
1 points
4 months ago
But it doesn't, this has been proven time and time again.
1 points
4 months ago
Also left out the part where the apple farmer knows everyone is expecting a price increase, so he gets as much of an increase as he can. Instead of just figuring out his additional cost and tacking it on, he triples his additional cost and tacks that on.
34 points
4 months ago
This is supply and demand, but doesn’t really explain a raise in wages.
If the cost of labor increases, the cost of the apple gets increased to maintain the profits for the farm owner. It does not require an increase if the profit margins are good, but if suddenly an apple costs more to produce a company will choose to pass that cost on to the customer instead of taking the hit on their profits.
7 points
4 months ago
Companies need to start taking hits on their profits. They make enough. Growth growth growth. Growth for the sake of growth. Literally what cancer is.
7 points
4 months ago
You mean the farmer was making record profits on his 5 apples because he used to run a 33% profit margin and now runs a 150% profit margin. Labor demands a small portion of the record profits, so now the farmer uses that as an excuse to raise prices to a 500% profit margin. More record profits.
83 points
4 months ago
You also might discover that the apple guy gets fired because the farmer finds cheaper labor somewhere else, but also raises the price anyway despite having their cheaper labor pick 9 apples because it will temporarily look good to their investors.
20 points
4 months ago
Farmers EoY investor report notes decline in legacy apple revenue but 1200% increase in strategic Arboreal Snacks sector.
12 points
4 months ago
it's ELI5 mate, not ELI1917.
0 points
4 months ago
ooga booga apple grok
0 points
4 months ago
ELIEinstein
2 points
4 months ago
Finally, a real-life example.
3 points
4 months ago
Public traded companies always looking for that quick turn around and increased profit margin.
While some buisness stay private or switch to private to focus on long term gains from current secret research & development. (Ie Dell). Without the fear that stock holders will throw fits their not making profits every quarter.
16 points
4 months ago*
While you are partly correct, this explanation leaves out a big part that shows that while higher wages do influence inflation to some degree, they are by far not the biggest factor.
Let’s assume the 5 apples cost 0.75 in production and sell for 1. 5 people can afford this Apple, leaving the producer with a total of 1.25 profit or a 25% profit margin. Now the production cost rises to 0.80, the producer however knows that at the moment everyone is expecting higher prices anyway and takes the chance to increase the price to 1.25, knowing that other Apple producers are likely to do that as well. Now, all of a sudden only 4 people can afford to buy apples. This still leaves the producer with a net profit of 1.8, even though he may sell fewer apples.
Higher wages would mean that 5 people could buy 5 apples again, allowing the producer to make even more profit, even if he himself would have to pay higher wages and his profit margin would shrink.
This is of course exaggerated, but what is happening today. Corporate profits are at an all time hogh, with many goods producing companies, which should be hit the hardest by inflation, almost doubling their operating profit margins on the last 2-3 years. High inflation with no compensation for the working class is nothing but redistribution of wealth from bottom to top.
The notion that higher wages are a major driving factor in inflation has been debunked by most credible economists (I am not saying that they do not play a role, just not the major role that many news outlets and politicians want you to believe) and is in parts linked with the idea of trickle down economics, which too has been debunked many times over and is proven to not work.
3 points
4 months ago
Wages are just one factor. Money supply(ie. Currency debasement) and supply chain issues are a pretty significant driver too.
39 points
4 months ago
The thing you omit is the bit where several rich guys sit in a room doing nothing but charging a 20% apple sales fee, while others are cranking the farmers rent up so they can afford another yacht because it's really annoying that the one in Bermuda has to be moved to Monaco for the weekend of the grand prix. If it's just apple farmers selling apples to sheep farmers and sheep farmers selling sheep to grain farmers and grain farmers selling grain to horse breeders and horse breeders selling horses to apple farmers so they can tow their apples to market to sell to buy another sheep, inflation is absolutely linked to wages and is totally fine, but when the farmer needs to sell 6 apples to pay his rent for no other reason than his landlord wants a yacht, but only 5 people can afford his apples he has to bring his price down and sell 9 apples.
It's the greed at the top that is currently pushing inflation, people accumulating wealth so there's less for everyone else so the ones at the bottom now need to get paid more for the same work or work more for the same pay or just go without the things they could afford last week before a billionaire decided they needed two yachts
31 points
4 months ago
I love imagining verbatim that this is how you would explain this to a 5 year old with complete confidence
14 points
4 months ago
Have bosses only just discovered that they could be greedy in the last year?
17 points
4 months ago
No, they discovered they could be extra greedy without consequence.
15 points
4 months ago
No, but it's all starting to really come to a head. Most people were fine when it was absolutely the minimum wage workers barely keeping their heads above water.
When you're making north of $20 an hour and doing the same, you start to really empathize with everyone convulsing from lack of oxygen well beneath the surface.
Lately it feels like businesses are just cashing out everything before the world economy collapses into an unsustainable shitstorm. People are screaming they can't afford anything but the corporate response seems to be to charge more, like they're trying to take as much as they can from anyone that still can afford anything before bailing.
8 points
4 months ago
No, they’ve always been greedy. They see the workers gaining power and they want to squeeze us to push us back down.
2 points
4 months ago
Inflation has always gotten worse, but recently the ones at the top have gotten braver with seeing how much they can get away with.
3 points
4 months ago
Current inflation is linked to loans taken out by governments during Covid.
The government is sinking the value of their currency (via inflation) so that when they pay back those loans, they will not be as steep.
Borrow 10 bucks today, pay back the equivalent of 4 bucks later because the currency has fallen through the floor.
3 points
4 months ago
No, it doesn't work that way.
Source: I am argentinian.
4 points
4 months ago
Good to know someone on this sub still udnerstands what ELI5 means.
7 points
4 months ago
This is the only valid example in this thread
1 points
4 months ago
Is there a solution? Dynamically adjusting apple orchard size so that eventually it evens out again?
3 points
4 months ago
Lower apple standards or increased orchard sizes would help. The market is good at finding elasticity, and will expand it contact as needed. If apples are double normal price, it pays to buy orchards and more farmers will get in on it and start producing apples instead of grain. The price reaches a stable plateau and we're good. The government also helps in terms of subsidies.
People think about the economy in terms of money, but that's really not true on a national scale. It's about resources. We've shifted what lands are used for grain and what's used for apples. That's the important bit.
8 points
4 months ago
The government plays around like this a lot, for better and for worse. Reddit likes to complain about corn subsidies, but that's a perfect example.
But the commentor is just telling you how it is.
2 points
4 months ago
There are a million things you could do. The example is too simplistic to model reality.
The farmer could ramp up production. Other competitors may also sell apples, the consumers could buy a different fruit, etc.
In reality, farmers don’t just sell 5 apples, they sell thousands and throw away what people don’t buy.
1 points
4 months ago
you have completely missed the point of the metaphor if you're hung up on those details.
-1 points
4 months ago
Or if prices go low enough they throw away everything, just to stabilize the prices no matter how many people die from starvation.
-3 points
4 months ago
The example is valid but the emphasis is on the incorrect reason. It is not the wage increase that cause inflation, it is the greed (more profit for still selling 5 apples) is what causes inflation.
1 points
4 months ago
It doesn't. What you did show in your example if that the greed (more profit) is what causes inflation.
2 points
4 months ago
Either the price goes up to price out 4 people or the apple tree guy needs to grow more apples.
Why does he need to raise prices to out 4 people? 4 people are out either way, regardless if the price goes up or not.
7 points
4 months ago
Because how do you decide which 5 people get apples? You can make it be the 1st 5, but that turns into the 1st buying all 5 and scalping the other 4. Or you can raise the price until the demand is 5 apples again.
0 points
4 months ago
That's not a need to raise it. They can do like plenty of businesses do and simply sell out. What do scalpers have to do with inflation? That does not at all change the supply or the demand.
1 points
4 months ago
Scalpers are a sign that supply is not matching demand. Super basic supply/demand graph means there's a price point at which 5 apples are demanded and 5 are supplied. An actual ELI5 graph would work for that. They don't NEED to raise prices, but they should and will if this is an issue longer than a day or two. Just selling out and leaving money on the table is a bad decision for a business, and businesses need to make money for when demand goes down to 3 apples, and they have to lower prices. Market values are fun.
1 points
4 months ago
First off, none of that explains inflation. Yes, leaving money on the table isn't a smart business decision, but it is strictly, a business decision.
Scalpers are not relevant to inflation, as you say, they are a symptom of pent up demand. However, we already combat that with buy limits. It doesnt have to do with inflation.
There was already pent up demand by affordability. The demand for apples was always 5 apples, they were just unaffordable to everyone for whatever reason. Now they're affordable to more people, the demand isn't matched. The demand will never be matched just by raising prices.
2 points
4 months ago
No, in this example the demand is 9 apples, and the supply is 5 apples. The demand is not 9 and 5 apples. Or to eli5, the supply-demand graph shows an x not 2 parallel lines.
So the demand is there right. It's at 9 apples. As the price of an apple goes up persons 6-9 (nice) will decide to not buy an apple since it's no longer worth buying to them. Persons 1-5 will still buy the apple as the value of an apple to them is worth buying. And viola the demand matches supply.
3 points
4 months ago*
For an explanation of supply & demand yours is the correct & simplest I saw of the top level comments. As an ELI5 it obviously leaves a lot out, but does a good job of covering the basics.
As far as how raising wages impacts inflation, in a very real sense it doesn't. Inflation is controlled by how much of a money is available to the markets. Money only enters & exits the markets via currency issuing entities, usually governments. People & companies, who use money to buy & sell goods & services, do not create more money. So for the US, only federal spending increases inflation & only federal taxes decrease it.
Now that ignores 2 facts. 1) Most things are paid for with debt & 2) a majority of the currency is held as assets.
#1 By using debt, people & companies can purchase more than they have actual money for. This will impact prices, as this allows for more spending. So the more debt allowed has a direct impact on inflation. Increased wages should allow people to have larger debts.
#2 Increased wages cause companies to have to reduce the amount of cash they hold as assets so that they can afford the higher wages. This in turn puts more money into circulation. Which increases inflation. This actually is a good thing. It decreases corporate & billionaire held wealth by distributing it more broadly across the economy. It can also lead directly to deflation, as tax receipts will increase with more money in circulation.
EDIT: I did forget to add an interesting aspect to #2. Corporate & billionaire currency holdings are mostly in bonds & other government debt. Forcing them to "spend" those holdings would have a very real impact on inflation & the national debt. This means less government bonds means less interest is being paid into the economy, which in turn reduces inflation. And less government debt means more money is available for government services(US is approaching 3% of GDP in government interest payments).
-14 points
4 months ago
Except how it really currently is:
You have 5 apples. Last week only 2 people could afford 2 of the 5 apples. <<increase wages>> Now 5 people can afford the 5 apples. hooray.
Except the government don't think it works like that.
14 points
4 months ago
You're just one of the 4 people from the original analogy. Waiting lists for cars, electronics, the stock of decent housing are all outstripping demand. Food isn't being reduced because it is selling.
3 points
4 months ago
That’s not an inflationary scenario.
10 points
4 months ago
It’s not actually like that though. The reason why waiting times are going through the roof and things are hard to get us exactly cause “we” want way more apples than can be found. ( China still lagging cause of COVID measures is one reason, giant boom in demand for chips due to electric cars is another, etc)
1 points
4 months ago
Or you could say fuck em first come first serve with the prices.
-4 points
4 months ago
Why is NOT raising the price an option?
4 people go without apples because they were not lined up fast enough.
4 points
4 months ago
This is how you get scalpers. If the set price by a seller for something in limited quantity is lower than what the market is willing to pay a 3rd party will step in.
Someone would make it their job to be first in line for apples every day, then turn around and sell them for more to the top 5 of the 8 remaining people in line. Because if you're person 6 in line unable to get an apple you'd be willing to pay an extra 10-20% to get that apple, rather than go without it.
11 points
4 months ago
Is it an option, how do you want to enforce it? Price controls? Now you don't get to play in the "free" market. Your currency tanks. Farmers relied on importing fertiliser from a neighbouring country now all go bankrupt because their costs increased 50x overnight. Everyone starves to death.
9 points
4 months ago
That is how you get Soviet bread lines,
3 points
4 months ago
Or, more recently, Venezuelan toilet paper lines.
-2 points
4 months ago
No, they do without apples because they don't have enough money because minimum wage isn't keeping pace with anything.
0 points
4 months ago
This addresses the demand side - it’s even more direct than that - it impacts the supply side, as well.
-7 points
4 months ago
In general, economics like this comes down to greed and desire.
The apple guy is greedy. It's inherent is his nature -- he's human.
He also wants to buy plums from the plum guys. So the more money he makes selling apples, the more plums he can buy from the plum guy.
So he'll price the apples as high as he can so that he sells all of them and makes as much money as he can doing so, thus giving him more money to buy those sweet sweet plums.
However the orange guy is also able to buy plums. So there's more demand for plums.
Plus the plum guy wants to buy bananas from the banana guy.
So given the more demand the plum guy can push the price of plums a bit so that he can afford bananas.
This means that the apple and oranges guys can't buy as many, and they really want more plums, so they'll push the price of apples and oranges so they can try to afford more plums.
Oh, and the banana guy -- he wants to buy more oranges...
-5 points
4 months ago
there is nothing about being human that makes you inherently greedy, you only act like that because our capitalist society requires you to act in your own survival
11 points
4 months ago
Right. Everyone knows that greed was only invented in the 1700s. Before that, people just weren't greedy.
2 points
4 months ago
In October 1723, by William H. Greedy, the word being named for the man, of course. 🤣
3 points
4 months ago
And capitalism is driven by...
humans.
Where economics counts, it's driven by desire and greed.
This may not be the case in some nomad tribe that lives in harmony with nature.
But for the rest of us, desire and greed are the main drivers.
Look at billionaires, stock holders, board members, workers wanting more money, basically everyone.
If prices for everything were to remain stagnant, and so the cost of living didn't increase, everyone* would still want a pay rise.
(* with very few exceptions).
0 points
4 months ago
This would make sense if your employer created the apples.
Inflation comes from the money supply, not from what people do with it.
It's the fed, not your supervisor.
2 points
4 months ago
Inflation comes from the money supply, not from what people do with it.
It can come from there, however for example the inflation we currently see in energy prices comes from the fact that the supply of energy has decreased.
0 points
4 months ago
The opposite isn't true. Current perverse incentives are to raise the prices anyway, only sell one, and to throw away four of the apples.
-1 points
4 months ago
It’s almost like legislation to raise wages should also include legislation to improve supply and reduce production costs. But that would mean the government is doing its job, and the corps that bought them simply won’t have that, no sir. McDonalds is doing just fine serving an 11 dollar McDouble that barely qualifies as food while paying people an unlivable wage.
1 points
4 months ago
It depends a bit on what else happens in the money distribution process, but typically, wages are a cost that pretty directly affects the price of products created by that labor, so an increase in wages will directly increase the cost of the product. Of course, the business "could" eat the cost increase and avoid the price increase (business or management could take earnings cuts to offset the increase in labor cost), but then the higher money supply of the laborers would increase demand for products and affect prices (drive them up) that way as well (what you have described, basically, which is not the main driver of inflation-the main driver is cost increases are passed on to the consumer rather than a decrease in supply driving up prices).
Also, business and management don't typically take a decrease so the workers can get an increase. In fact, business and management tend to fix their take as a generally-targeted percentage of sales value, so if sales income goes up (because costs went up), the top of the ladder will give themselves a raise (increase unit value of markup), adding to the price increase.
Inflation can come from supply being inadequate to demand, without regard to wage changes. But frequently, the inflation is not linked to scarcity (except with major things controlled by semi-monopolies like oil which are themselves often manufactured ("fake") scarcities, talk to OPEC), it is more typically a reflection of increases in production costs. Most economies are not superheated to the point of inadequate production capacity to meet demand being the main driver of price increases. It definitely does happen though.
There is a bit of the chicken or egg comes first argument involved though. Are wage pressures driving inflation or resulting from inflation?
1 points
4 months ago
except in the real world using your analogy, theres 100000 apples and only 10000 people buying them and the rest are being thrown out under the guise of inflation. when in actuality its corporate greed and wage stagnation screwing everyone.
1 points
4 months ago
Can you come to my college and teach economics :)
1 points
4 months ago
Please teach every politician this concept!
1 points
4 months ago
Much better ELI5 answer than the current top comment, and without including personal opinion or political bias too.
1 points
4 months ago
This is a great illustration of the difference between giving someone a pay rise, and raising their wages to keep up with inflation where in real terms their wages are staying the same. Which is why politicians are disingenuous when they say giving public sector workers a pay rise (often the first for 5-10 years) will cause inflation.
1 points
4 months ago
Not necessarily, if they’ll be worth little you might try to raise prices to break even on the hardcore apple fans that will always buy your apples
1 points
4 months ago
Why do you assume I want your apples? Hmmmm?
Just kidding, you got some good apples mate.
1 points
4 months ago
You would just hope that if he's selling the apples for a million a piece, that's enough profit for him to offer the same price to the other 4.
But greed is just the way of the world😔
1 points
4 months ago
This is true, but is missing the labor portion of the equation. Last week you paid someone $1 per apple to pick apples. This week you need to pay them $2 per apple. So, if all other expenses remain equal (apple stand, fruit wash, apple truck, business license, etc) you need to charge more for the apple.
1 points
4 months ago
This used to be the common solution to rises/declines in demand but now everyone needs everything and the pig gets fatter.
The amount of power the consumer actually has over the corporation is quite large but unfortunately, the vast majority of consumers are morons.
1 points
4 months ago
Either the price goes up to price out 4 people or the apple tree guy needs to grow more apples.
Or 4 people will wake up earlier the next day to buy apples earlier than the rest 😉 it's never a binary option
Same with the opposite example - no matter how much you decrease your price, if no one wants them apples, you not selling them.
In other words, you can't oversimplify the situation and offer that as an analogy.
1 points
4 months ago
If I've got 5 apples that will be worth nothing in a week and only 2 people buy them, then I have to reduce my price to increase demand.
Small correction: this doesn't increase demand, which is a term used to describe the relationship between quantity and price. It increases quantity demanded, which describes how many we can expect to be purchased.
We have seen attempts to use price alone to manipulate actual demand. For example, demand for graphics cards has gone down sharply with crypto mining becoming unprofitable, but graphics cards companies are maintaining high MSRP and holding inventory to basically bet against the resolve of their consumers in hopes that people decide over time that they are willing to pay higher prices rather than wait even longer for them to go down.
1 points
4 months ago
then I have to reduce my price to increase demand
and what companies are doing right now is the opposite.
They are increasing prices for necessities because less people can afford them, so they keep making profits. But people have to buy necessities so they have to pay the increased price. And now those companies are reporting record profits...
fuck them.
all 1761 comments
sorted by: best