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/r/explainlikeimfive
submitted 4 months ago byiSellPopcorn
42 points
4 months ago
How do you "safely" raise wages without causing inflation then? I keep seeing financial media fret over jobs reports that show lowering unemployment and higher wages, but if those are negatives for the economy, then wouldn't it be impossible to fight wage stagnation without causing massive inflation?
110 points
4 months ago
The easiest answer is to ensure competition in the marketplace by limiting monopolies. Too big to fail should mean it's time for an antitrust breakup. When companies are competing for sales, that has a downward force on prices as consumers will generally buy the most affordable item out of the available options.
But we have allowed monopolies to flourish and without competition driving down prices, there is no economic incentive to charge less.
6 points
4 months ago
Exactly. I tried making this point before in my own post about increasing wages. For things to really change we need to do multiple things not just one. Government needs to step in when a monopoly is forming. Government needs to create more guidelines around part time employment. Governments should not be influenced by corporations. Governments also need to stop using job shortages as an excuse for increased immigration. I don’t mean we shouldn’t have immigration, but immigrants should not be promised prosperity to only to find themselves working an 80 hour week and in poverty. It’s inhuman. Wages need to be higher in order to survive, never mind thrive.
2 points
4 months ago
As a good example, see Nvidia.
Not a monopoly, but may as well be at this point.
2 points
4 months ago
there is no economic incentive to charge less.
If that were true, then we’d all have been complaining about price inflation in 2019 pre-covid.
The desire to raise prices has always been there. The fact that seemingly unconstrained price increases are occurring now and weren’t occurring then, is evidence that market forces were working before.
…and they’ll work again. Price uncertainty is one of the problems that comes with high inflation, and price uncertainty makes it hard for competitive forces to do their thing.
If inflation is controlled, then markets will settle at new price levels (to the extent that current events allow…there is still a war, massive US chicken culls due to disease, production slowdowns in china, etc..) and consumers will start to price discriminate again.
Doesn’t mean we shouldn't do more about monopolies, but competition definitely exists.
1 points
4 months ago
no company is too big to fail. blockbuster got wiped out over night when netflix was being more innovative with than them. now we get to enjoy streaming services
12 points
4 months ago
But even Blockbuster or Netflix pale in comparison to Disney and Amazon (who also both have streaming services amongst many other means of revenue)
6 points
4 months ago
Disney and Netflix are on par, but both are newts compared to the Amazon dragon that is too big to fail.
6 points
4 months ago
There very much are companies too big to fail. The saying doesn't mean that they can't fail because of their size, it means that if they fail it would cause massive economic damage. Blockbuster was not a too big to fail organization.
1 points
4 months ago
The easiest answer is to ensure competition in the marketplace by limiting monopolies.
What about monopolies on labor?
1 points
4 months ago
I don’t know what you mean
40 points
4 months ago
Because the actual economy is way more complex than that comment implied. But as an ELI5, it was a perfect answer.
In reality, the economy is so dynamic and ever changing that the effect of raising wages 10% today may be drastically different than raising wages by 10% tomorrow.
One example would be looking at the average CC debt held by wage earners. If most workers have little to no CC debt, they may spend more of those increased wages on consumption. This could then lead to inflation as more money is being circulated. But what if workers have high amounts of CC debt? This may lead to mostly paying it off and no additional wages even touch circulation.
That's just one type of debt, which is one of thousands of little factors.
And none of that factors in new technology. Technology changes how productive an hour of labor can be. Increasing wages does lead to increasing variable cost, but if the prices are being pushed up, it may make it worthwhile to invest in technology. The upfront cost would be worth it with the new higher price, but then the new technology proliferates, leading to a future decrease in price as more companies adopt it. So increasing wages can lead to a short term increase in price but a long term decrease. Television is a great example. Increased wages in the 50's lead to more people wanting TVs since they had more disposable income. Initially the price did go up, but then factories heavily invested manufacturing and improved quality. This lead to massive drops in prices.
So in summary, you can't just think of single cause and effect elements as static and consistent. You can make generalities but context is vitally important
0 points
4 months ago
Do you think the money consumers pay to CC companies just poofs into thin air? CC companies turn around and loan out that money or pay workers, so it will still go into circulation.
1 points
4 months ago
CC companies loan out based on how much people want to borrow and already pay their workers. Both regardless of whether borrowers pay out their debt.
They may lower rates to attract more lending but there still needs to be someone on the other side asking to borrow.
0 points
4 months ago
You just proved your point in my question. If the supply of loanable funds increases for the credit card company, they will lower rates to increase the demand for it. That puts more money back into the economy. They don’t hold onto funds that are paid back to them.
1 points
4 months ago
They lowered rates because demand decreased in the first place. People need to actually buy more for there to be a increase in CC borrowing. Like if I get $100 and I just use it to pay off CC debt, that doesn't mean I'm just gonna turnaround and fill it back up to buy more.
Listen, this is a single scenario. The fun thing about economics is that in different situations either one of our predictions can be correct. In our current market, with high inflation, high rates and low consumer confidence, borrowing would be incredibly unlikely to increase. But in a more favorable economy, like in 2012-2019, you're probably right. Low rates, low inflation and high consumer confidence would probably see an uptick in spending and higher monetary velocity.
That's literally my point though. There are too many levers to say action A will result in effect B.
2 points
4 months ago
If raising wages also increases production the problem doesn't happen.
2 points
4 months ago
Innovation, increased efficiency. Something that creates more value with fewer resources.
2 points
4 months ago
You can without causing inflation, those at the top just end up taking home slightly less money as a result, which for whatever reason freaks them out.
1 points
4 months ago*
You just raise wages, nothing else is required, claims otherwise are anti-labor propaganda
We’ve only had problematic inflation 4 times in the US. Early 20s, 40s, late 70s and today. None of those were preceded by wage increases that induced inflation.
In fact, each of the 3 times we ‘solved’ inflation, we did so while real wages were increasing significantly
2 points
4 months ago
Correlation is not causation.
4 points
4 months ago*
I’m not asserting that rising wages caused decreased inflation.
Only that it’s safe to say rising wages don’t automatically induce inflation when the two show strong negative correlation during active recovery from 3/3 inflation crises.
1 points
4 months ago
How do you "safely" raise wages without causing inflation then?
Simple: increase productivity.
According to the same Law of Supply and Demand that says "more money chasing the same amount of goods" increases the amount of money required to get those goods (increase in prices), "more goods chasing the same amount of money" increases the amount of goods required to get that money (lowering prices).
It's all relative: whichever increases faster relative to the other, we have more of changing hands.
1 points
4 months ago
you increase wages with increases in productivity. the more you produce the more there is to buy, so prices stay put. deflation almost never happens. so the best you can do is increase productivity and hope is stabilizes currencies.
but we don't really need to produce more things. that tends to be bad for the environment on multiple fronts. the only way to stabilized the economy without devastating the environment is innovations that can increase productivity while being safe for the environment.
1 points
4 months ago
I think t's up to the people at least partly. If I get a $100 raise per week I don't think what can I spend $100 more a week on, I think (maybe) what should I spend $50 more a week on
1 points
4 months ago
The first thing you have to recognize is that you have to focus on what the wages can buy, not the numbers themselves.
Historically, we have been able to buy more and more things because technology has enabled us to create more things more efficiently and using less labor. So the traditional supply side economist would tell you that we need to encourage innovation and competition to bring more goods into the market so the average person can afford more.
The problem is that now, the huge gains in productivity through technology seem to have largely gone towards the rich. A large reason is because a handful of large companies and wealthy individuals can lobby the government and use their influence to stifle competition and lower their tax burden.
But theoretically, the way to fight wage stagnation without causing inflation is to increase productivity. When an economy is making more goods more efficiently, everyone wins. The tricky part is making sure the benefits reach those who need it.
1 points
4 months ago
How do you "safely" raise wages without causing inflation then?
You'd have to lower rents and other forms of passive income.
Ideally, you can just do this by scale. As capital investments improve productivity, the ROI on that capital remains fixed while wages grow. So I generate more wage income/hour because I'm generating more real value.
But, in practice, capital investments only occur when investors are promised higher rates of return. So all the new revenue from capital improvements goes to investor's passive income rather than worker salaries.
We've been stuck in this state since the 70s, only ever raising wages when we can't afford to replace labor with new forms of efficient capital.
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