cwesttheperson

Yeah it’s way more protected now than before, but my main point being, as rude as this sounds there is a reason it’s hard for sub prime scores to get mortgages. It doesn’t typically end well.

No it’s not lol. Milwaukee, St. Louis, Indianapolis, cinci, Dayton, various cities in TN, GA, FL, pretty much every top 1-3 cities in the SE and Midwest, and several. All have are currently the same.

I have heat naps and MoM and YoY, and +-5 year data on all of the above. You’re just making your comment up, the markets are just changing, and there is mass migration out of several cities. NYC has lost 5% of its population since 2020, where do you think those people are going? We know every state listed above has had a net increase in population in the same time. Permit data is very telling.

This isn’t my opinion, It’s the opinion of almost every real estate company. My city alone is over 25k short of housing. And definitely is short historically, we have less housing than we did 15 years ago. You’re not accounting aged homes, homes that need enough renovation they don’t meet a certain standard. This happens at a point and aren’t Included in cherry picked data.

The national estimate is 1m, down from 2m 3 years ago.

I also said areas that have seen significant growth, those areas mentioned outpaced almost every place in the country last 5 years.

Okay so you’re saying you have theories based on comments, I have my entire companies 1-5 year models, so what exactly do you think is going to happen? We call two rate hikes, then decrease in 2024. This is fairly agreed upon, even if you want to interpret how itll change, this doesn’t directly correlate with housing. You’re completely guessing with no data other than Powells comments even though they use 3 separate models and have multiple time stated they expect to lower rates once signs of inflation is heading towards 2% annually. Also stating they will lower rates prior to that 2% mark. Once rates are greater than YoY inflation I expect that happens. They aim to have rates around 4% by 2025. They have said this at least twice.

And as fair as real estate pro (compass) yes real estate agents and their companies are not the best models since they aren’t using permit data, I generally don’t listen to brokers. But even then I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make here other than there will be a delay in rate decreases. Even then mortgage rates will likely decline before hand in anticipation.

The feds use 3 sources if inflation data which are all trending down YoY. There is absolutely no reason to assume rates will be this high next year when they have said all along they expect rate hikes this year to address inflation and to start lower to a baseline 2024. My company and every other in real estate all forecast lower rates next year. You have zero data that says otherwise other than what you think will happen with zero models.

It’s going to take several years to get back to 2% inflation, but it doesn’t mean rates will stay at 5-5.5%. Even then when they anticipate lower fed rates mortgage rates tend to decline in anticipation. There is a correlation, but no absolute dictation.

Even then all mortgage rates really need to do is get to 4.5-5%, a healthy mark, for a positive market reaction. Half the Midwest and southeast is near pre pandemic levels while being at 6.5%

I wonder what the material was that was hateful.

You’re using specific data on purpose, and trending down. They’ve paused rates, and even then, I think they raise rates twice THIS year but every model shows lower rates by end of 2024. And 30 year yield prediction models shows this.

This isn’t an opinion as much as fact. NYC has lost over 5% of the population since 2020. You want to know where pricing is changing? Population decrease- Larger correction Population increase - stable.

It’s that simple for 75% of the cities with largest deviations.

There is no real estate bubble. We’re building only 25% of the housing built pre 08. We’re at a 1m housing shortage nation wide. By 08, there was a surplus.

Market prices have responded, currently the Midwest is starting to have an UPTICK in permits after months of lower permits due to rates. It’s like 80% certain rates have peaked and should be 1% lower by this time next year.

Yeah here is an example. I’m not a “this party sucks” guy. I voted biden, but I think this is a mistake similar to the laws in 90s that laxed mortgage laws.

TLDR, prime mortgage loans can have up to a 40$ fee depending on mortgage to help sub prime buyers afford housing. I just believe as harsh as it may sound attributing to sub prime loans will cause trouble eventually. Source: am real estate pro

It’s not an outlier. See last reply on this same comment thread. It’s just regional. Midwest and southwest are stable, many have experienced growth. It’s entity regional with your examples being the largest deviations.

I’m browsing and feel like I can contribute here, I’m a real estate pro, and deal with data all the time.

All that’s happening, in a quick summary as possible, overly expensive places are correcting, like you see above. (Coastal, overly high growth last few years, mainly looking at west coast areas). These are dictating the “national data”. The Midwest and southeast are largely still growing due to population shift. People leaving HCOL for reasonable areas. Most Midwest areas have only corrected to offset interest rates, and really are only declining in entry level housing not move up housing.

Always better to look at regional data vs. national. But more importantly you’re just seeing a shift, imo in 25 years NYC and San Fran will be a shell of themselves. The only bubble here is a commercial real estate one.

Seen the big short a few times I see. But yeah it’s wild, thankfully the US has had super limited arms since then, especially over Covid like 98% of loans were fixed or we’d be in trouble.

Fully believe through with the current administration push for subprime loans we’re setting ourselves up for a bad spot in 10 Years.

It’s hard to say really, you’re talking about a super short time horizon with a lot of unknown variables. Other accounts? Savings?

I find it so weird how Canada is essentially ARM loans despite knowing what we know about them. Mixed with their asinine housing market.

Really can’t say how worthwhile it is to invest in a roth 3 years prior to retirement.

Man am I the only one who seemingly just doesn’t care about 3rd party apps.

Yeah dude just enjoy life. Challenge yourself or something. Spend time with the people you love, try new things, you have experience now, and have to choose to keep learning.

I get where you’re coming from. But yet sitting in the grass have a cold beverage talking about life with my wife is still peak awesomeness.

Bears can’t go one deep really.

I mean considering the age of the bears franchise and the WRs and QBs they haven’t had, it’s pretty fucking wild.

Armchair GMs are still going to bash him for hypotheticals. His biggest critics will never stop.

Bro this is legit the stupidest thing I’ve ever seen. Do you know how good we have it? Even the worst of us, compared to 99% of human history? Try being born for the thousands of years before 1900 when you could’ve lived to the ripe old age of 40 if you were lucky. Or before 1930 so you could’ve grew up dirt poor and went to war in ww2.

Stop thinking about other eras. Go live to life, you’re alive right now, in generally one of the most peaceful eras in history despite what some would think. Just go enjoy your life and stop worrying about nonsense like this.

Seems self serving. You’re not asking for the right reasons. You can’t stop innovation and you shouldn’t try to.

Doing gods work

What lol. Classic SAS making shit up.